Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T02:45:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

9D
0x9dfe…b3dd
world · 167 markets active 5h ago
3.0score
+$55,995 +8%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$45,793 · open +$10,091
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$71,731
Realized+$45,793
Unrealized+$10,091
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses114 / 51
Whale WR (big bets)79%
Est. fees paid−$46
Open positions17
Markets (closed)165 / 167
History coverage102d
Avg bet$4,381
Trades / day31.7
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit62%
Chart Positions 17 History 165 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$618
7 days−$5,157
14 days+$11,980
30 days+$10,783
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No 91¢ 96¢ $11,959 $12,628 +$669 (+6%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 70¢ 84¢ $6,565 $7,872 +$1,307 (+20%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No 85¢ 94¢ $6,790 $7,508 +$718 (+11%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 67¢ 81¢ $5,351 $6,401 +$1,050 (+20%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 64¢ 98¢ $3,840 $5,883 +$2,043 (+53%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? No 46¢ 98¢ $2,570 $5,533 +$2,962 (+115%)
Iran leadership change by December 31? No 70¢ 80¢ $3,500 $4,025 +$525 (+15%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? No 80¢ 94¢ $3,339 $3,899 +$560 (+17%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 29¢ 26¢ $4,044 $3,629 −$416 (-10%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 43¢ 62¢ $2,169 $3,183 +$1,014 (+47%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 36¢ 48¢ $2,141 $2,910 +$769 (+36%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Yes 66¢ 64¢ $2,929 $2,801 −$127 (-4%)
Iran leadership change by June 30? No 74¢ 97¢ $1,531 $2,000 +$470 (+31%)
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? No 84¢ 100¢ $1,164 $1,371 +$207 (+18%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? No 68¢ 32¢ $2,553 $1,183 −$1,370 (-54%)
Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch? No 67¢ 51¢ $1,164 $886 −$278 (-24%)
Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch? No 46¢ 28¢ $32 $20 −$12 (-38%)
Will MrBeast say "Car" or "Supercar" during his next YouTube video? No 42¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Will the 2026 State of the Union address be between 90 and 100 minutes long? Yes 22¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
ZachXBT investigation post over 10M views on day one? No 29¢ 0¢ $630 $0 −$630 (-100%)
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? No 64¢ 0¢ $2,560 $0 −$2,560 (-100%)
ZachXBT investigation post over 14M views on day one? No 42¢ 0¢ $420 $0 −$420 (-100%)
Will Trump say "Obliterated" or "Obliteration" during the White House Easter Egg Roll? No 82¢ 0¢ $164 $0 −$164 (-100%)
Will MrBeast's next video get between 40 and 45 million views on day 1? Yes 34¢ 0¢ $601 $0 −$601 (-100%)
P2P FDV above $15M one day after launch? Yes 37¢ 0¢ $101 $0 −$101 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will MrBeast say "Car" or "Supercar" during his next YouTube video? Jun 14 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the 2026 State of the Union address be between 90 and 100 minutes Jun 14 $0 +$40 +75935%
ZachXBT investigation post over 10M views on day one? Jun 14 $630 −$621 -99%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Jun 14 $2,560 −$2,560 -100%
ZachXBT investigation post over 14M views on day one? Jun 14 $420 −$420 -100%
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026? Jun 14 $2,730 −$2,730 -100%
Will MrBeast say "Massive" during his next YouTube video? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026? Jun 14 $800 −$800 -100%
Will MrBeast's latest video get 16–18 million views on day 1? Jun 14 $130 −$140 -108%
Will Trump say "Nobel" or "Peace Prize" during the 2026 State of the U Jun 14 $176 −$176 -100%
Will MrBeast hit 470 Million subscribers by March 31? Jun 14 $255 −$334 -131%
Will Axiom be accused of insider trading? Jun 14 $3,824 −$3,826 -100%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 12 $6,040 +$4,334 +72%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $8,223 +$627 +8%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $2,959 +$265 +9%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 12 $9,435 +$566 +6%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $5,629 +$2,616 +46%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $5,114 +$3,792 +74%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 12 $4,801 −$1,308 -27%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 10? Jun 09 $1,354 −$1,354 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? Jun 09 $3,454 +$2,200 +64%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 08 $343 −$343 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $4,373 −$4,113 -94%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $976 −$857 -88%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 05 $1,058 −$98 -9%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? Jun 05 $2,550 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 04 $3,818 +$182 +5%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $61,534 +$12,748 +21%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in June? Jun 04 $1,560 +$1,440 +92%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by May 31? Jun 02 $206 +$84 +41%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? Jun 02 $2,880 +$120 +4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? Jun 02 $3,540 +$460 +13%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 02 $4,948 +$2,699 +54%
Iran leadership change by May 31? Jun 02 $8,900 +$1,064 +12%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Jun 02 $9,690 +$310 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 01 $2,610 −$1,896 -73%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? May 31 $1,449 +$25 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 30 $5,725 −$3,390 -59%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May? May 30 $3,526 +$531 +15%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? May 30 $4,915 +$2,857 +58%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $11,361 −$1,445 -13%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23? May 23 $368 −$368 -100%
Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 200,000 packages by 10:00 PM o May 23 $5 +$2 +54%
Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping? May 23 $496 +$124 +25%
Will Trump and Xi hug at their summit? May 23 $910 +$90 +10%
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? May 23 $961 +$39 +4%
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping? May 23 $961 +$39 +4%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during events with Xi Jinping? May 23 $1,760 +$240 +14%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 23 $5,401 −$52 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? May 23 $11,539 +$417 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 53% +$17,832
other 24% +$12,394
crypto 10% +$14,921
tech 6% +$12,102
economics 4% +$62
finance 2% +$3,986
politics 1% +$2,484
sports 0% +$3,685
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 64¢ $160 5h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 64¢ $423 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $699 7h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 33¢ $179 9h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 33¢ $179 9h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 33¢ $40 9h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 33¢ $17 9h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 33¢ $815 9h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $8 9h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $26 9h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $52 9h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $11 9h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $315 9h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $116 9h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $231 9h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 36¢ $355 9h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 67¢ $2,345 9h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 36¢ $5 9h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 36¢ $3 9h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 36¢ $1 9h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 36¢ $13 9h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 36¢ $333 9h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $146 12h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $121 13h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $110 14h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $6 14h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $55 14h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $53 14h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $138 14h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $20 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)+34.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +32.1% +19.5% 33% 21% -16.7%
≤30d 53 +16.1% +5.1% 55% 30% -5.1%
≤90d 152 +53.2% +38.6% 68% 43% -2.7%
all 165 +49.1% +34.9% 69% 44% -2.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover31.7 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +34.9% 44% -2.7%
10% +22.0% 29% -12.0%
15% ← realistic here +10.2% 24% -20.5%
20% -0.6% 18% -28.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $71,731.22 · official $71,731.23 (match) · 3500 history records