Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:23:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9E 0x9e01…2d32 crypto 495 markets active 0h ago coverage 18d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$14 (-1%) realized −$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate81%402W / 93L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day43.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$15
7 days−$33
14 days−$33
30 days−$29
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$33
finance 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 494 -2.7% -12.0% 81% 31% -10.8%
≤30d 495 -2.6% -11.9% 81% 32% -10.6%
≤90d 495 -2.6% -11.9% 81% 32% -10.6%
all 495 -2.6% -11.9% 81% 32% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover43.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.9% 32% -10.6%
10% ← realistic here -20.3% 26% -19.2%
15% -28.0% 15% -27.0%
20% -35.1% 7% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
59% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses402 / 93
Open positions0
Markets (closed)495 / 495
History coverage18d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day43.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 495 Trades
no open positions (79 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 18 $4 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 18 $7 +$3 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 18 $3 +$2 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 18 $4 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 18 $7 −$2 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 18 $8 +$2 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 18 $4 +$1 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 18 $3 +$2 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 18 $3 +$2 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 18 $3 +$2 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 18 $3 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 18 $4 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 18 $3 +$2 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 18 $4 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 18 $4 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 18 $7 −$2 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 18 $3 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 18 $3 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 18 $4 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 18 $4 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 18 $3 +$2 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 18 $3 +$2 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 18 $4 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 18 $3 +$2 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 18 $4 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 18 $4 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 18 $4 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 18 $3 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 18 $4 +$1 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 18 $8 −$4 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 18 $4 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 18 $4 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 18 $3 +$2 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 18 $7 −$2 -26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $4 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $4 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $3 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $0 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $4 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $3 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.00 · official $5.00 (match) · 1002 history records