Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T05:03:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9E 0x9e03…6bbe crypto 43 markets active 1h ago coverage 13d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! high turnover
Total PnL −$17 (-2%) realized −$17 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate14%6W / 37L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day44.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 13d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% −$41
culture 3% −$2
sports 1% $0
other 1% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-18.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 -9.7% -18.3% 14% 9% -13.9%
≤30d 43 -9.7% -18.3% 14% 9% -13.9%
≤90d 43 -9.7% -18.3% 14% 9% -13.9%
all 43 -9.7% -18.3% 14% 9% -13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover44.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.3% 9% -13.9%
10% ← realistic here -26.1% 5% -22.1%
15% -33.3% 5% -29.6%
20% -39.8% 5% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 68% · top 2 90% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
7.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.4 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.25 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses6 / 37
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)43 / 43
History coverage13d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day44.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 43 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 15 $71 −$3 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 15 $72 −$8 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $30 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 15 $62 −$2 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $70 −$5 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 15 $92 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 15 $94 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 14 $41 −$2 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 14 $26 −$3 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 14 $35 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 14 $18 −$3 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 14 $38 −$3 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 14 $32 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 14 $109 −$2 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 14 $12 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 14 $72 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 14 $76 −$10 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 -9%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $6 +$4 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 13 $7 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$4 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$12 +225%
New Rihanna Album before GTA VI? Jun 13 $36 −$2 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 13 $7 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 13 $4 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 13 $4 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 13 $4 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 13 $6 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$1 -7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET SELL Up 93¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET SELL Up 93¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET SELL Down 8¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET SELL Up 92¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET SELL Down 9¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET SELL Up 87¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET SELL Up 87¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET SELL Down 11¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET SELL Up 88¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET SELL Up 88¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET SELL Down 16¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET SELL Up 81¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET SELL Down 24¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET SELL Up 51¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET SELL Down 6¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET SELL Down 6¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET SELL Down 19¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET SELL Up 78¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET SELL Up 60¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET SELL Up 46¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 620 history records