Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:51:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
9E 0x9e05…58aa sports 7 markets active 3d ago coverage 27d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$75 (+20%) realized +$75 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +12% what you keep after slip
Net edge+12%after slip
Net WR71%break-even
Win rate71%5W / 2L
Drawdown76%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 27d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$71
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +71%
net ROI/market (all)+12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +20.5% +9.0% 67% 67% +7.2%
≤30d 7 +24.1% +12.3% 71% 71% +7.9%
≤90d 7 +24.1% +12.3% 71% 71% +7.9%
all 7 +24.1% +12.3% 71% 71% +7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +12.3% 71% +7.9%
10% +1.5% 71% -2.4%
15% -8.3% 57% -11.8%
20% -17.3% 43% -20.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 57% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +19% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +24% · $-wt +19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$37 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.95 per $1 lost it wins $1.95
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$75
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses5 / 2
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)7 / 7
History coverage27d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown76%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 7 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
1st 5 Innings Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5) Jun 13 $67 +$20 +31%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Caty McNally vs Mika Stojsavljevic Jun 13 $49 −$9 -18%
Tucuman: Nicolas Kicker vs Federico Coria Jun 12 $54 +$38 +70%
Bratislava: Zsombor Piros vs Taro Daniel Jun 12 $67 −$66 -99%
1st 5 Innings Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 12 $51 +$42 +83%
1st 5 Innings Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5) Jun 12 $71 +$41 +57%
Geneva Open: Jenson Brooksby vs Casper Ruud May 19 $11 +$5 +46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Caty McNally vs Mika Stojsavljevic SELL Caty McNally 50¢ $40 3d
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Caty McNally vs Mika Stojsavljevic BUY Caty McNally 59¢ $49 3d
1st 5 Innings Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5) BUY Texas Rangers 76¢ $67 3d
Tucuman: Nicolas Kicker vs Federico Coria BUY Nicolas Kicker 58¢ $54 4d
Bratislava: Zsombor Piros vs Taro Daniel BUY Zsombor Piros 63¢ $67 4d
1st 5 Innings Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 54¢ $51 5d
1st 5 Innings Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5) BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 63¢ $71 5d
Geneva Open: Jenson Brooksby vs Casper Ruud BUY Casper Ruud 68¢ $11 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 13 history records