Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T00:51:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9E 0x9e0e…1512 other 437 markets active 2h ago coverage 283d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$905 (-9%) realized −$901 · open −$4
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%152W / 246L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$36est.
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$520now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$78
7 days+$128
14 days+$195
30 days+$173
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% −$277
sports 46% −$398
world 2% +$52
crypto 0% −$34
culture 0% −$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 +14.3% +3.4% 45% 45% +9.1%
≤30d 121 -0.1% -9.6% 43% 43% -3.5%
≤90d 136 +6.8% -3.4% 44% 44% -3.3%
all 398 +0.3% -9.2% 38% 38% -16.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 38% -16.3%
10% -17.9% 38% -24.4%
15% -25.8% 38% -31.7%
20% -33.1% 37% -38.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$20 · ×1.4 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

283d coverage
Net worth$520
Realized−$901
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses152 / 246
Est. fees paid−$36
Open positions12
Markets (closed)398 / 437
History coverage283d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 398 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $100 $110 +$10 (+10%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $122 $102 −$20 (-17%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 50¢ 50¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $60 $66 +$6 (+10%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $30 $33 +$3 (+9%)
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals Yes 36¢ 100¢ $11 $30 +$19 (+178%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $50 $29 −$21 (-42%)
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Yes 59¢ 57¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-3%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $7 $11 +$4 (+57%)
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 1 Senegal? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $6 $6 +$1 (+14%)
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 41¢ 36¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-13%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $6 $3 −$3 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 146 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 1.5 AND New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U Jun 22 $26 +$50 +195%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $22 +$28 +122%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 21 $16 −$15 -98%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $27 +$21 +78%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 1.5 AND Netherlands vs. Sweden: Jun 20 $16 +$22 +134%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $19 +$11 +57%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $44 +$26 +59%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $12 −$12 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $35 −$34 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $5 −$2 -37%
Vinícius Júnior: 2+ goals Jun 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Raphinha: 1+ goals Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $43 +$27 +62%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $8 −$8 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $42 −$41 -99%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $18 −$18 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $17 −$17 -98%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score AND Will Panama win on 2026-0 Jun 18 $12 +$31 +250%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $20 +$30 +146%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $21 −$20 -99%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $41 +$39 +97%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $13 +$17 +127%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $27 −$27 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $21 −$21 -99%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals Jun 17 $6 −$6 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 AND Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $10 +$36 +352%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 AND Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 AND Will F Jun 17 $8 +$26 +312%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $42 +$38 +90%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $29 −$28 -99%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $19 −$18 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $19 −$19 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $15 −$15 -98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $24 −$24 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $22 +$18 +82%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $52 +$48 +92%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $26 −$25 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $24 −$24 -99%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $32 +$18 +57%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $15 +$29 +193%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $53 −$52 -99%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $29 +$31 +109%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 13 $5 −$4 -98%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 11¢ $6 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 59¢ $30 1h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals AND Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score A BUY 26¢ $10 1h
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 AND Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND No BUY 33¢ $16 5h
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals BUY Yes 36¢ $11 5h
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals AND Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 AND Erling BUY $8 10h
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 AND Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 AND BUY 20¢ $22 10h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 1.5 BUY Over 45¢ $22 22h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 25h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 44¢ $16 26h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 1.5 AND New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U BUY 33¢ $26 27h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 1.5 AND New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 1. BUY 44¢ $32 30h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 AND New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams t BUY 10¢ $5 30h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 1.5 AND Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY 28¢ $20 30h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) AND Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Japan BUY 11¢ $11 46h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY 55¢ $27 46h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 63¢ $19 2d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $70 2d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 39¢ $12 2d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 1.5 AND Netherlands vs. Sweden: BUY 42¢ $16 2d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 62¢ $44 2d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score AND Netherlands vs. Sweden BUY 21¢ $15 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 50¢ $102 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 49¢ $35 2d
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? SELL Yes 10¢ $3 2d
Vinícius Júnior: 2+ goals BUY Yes 19¢ $5 3d
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 3d
Vinícius Júnior: 2+ goals BUY Yes 19¢ $1 3d
Raphinha: 1+ goals BUY Yes 50¢ $10 3d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 50¢ $20 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $519.77 · official $546.77 · 943 history records