Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T17:23:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9E 0x9e10…c799 crypto 222 markets active 2h ago coverage 24d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$63 (+5%) realized +$65 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate47%103W / 118L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day14.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$72
7 days−$20
14 days−$29
30 days−$58
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$60
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-22.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -9.0% -17.6% 40% 40% -4.0%
≤30d 221 -14.2% -22.3% 47% 42% -10.8%
≤90d 221 -14.2% -22.3% 47% 42% -10.8%
all 221 -14.2% -22.3% 47% 42% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.3% 42% -10.8%
10% -29.8% 40% -19.3%
15% -36.6% 34% -27.1%
20% -42.8% 29% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized+$65
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses103 / 118
Open positions1
Markets (closed)221 / 222
History coverage24d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day14.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 221 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 30? Down 50¢ 28¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-43%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 111 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 29? Jun 29 $198 −$98 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 28? Jun 28 $108 +$29 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 27? Jun 27 $134 −$29 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 26? Jun 26 $54 +$81 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$5 +217%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$3 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$3 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$5 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$4 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$6 +156%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$2 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$10 +331%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $8 +$1 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 29? BUY Up 38¢ $59 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 29? SELL Down 62¢ $60 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 30? BUY Down 50¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 29? BUY Down 94¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 29? BUY Down 94¢ $85 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 29? SELL Up 3¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 29? SELL Up 3¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 29? SELL Up 3¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 29? BUY Up 45¢ $22 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 29? BUY Up 31¢ $6 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 29? BUY Up 36¢ $7 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 29? BUY Up 41¢ $1 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 29? BUY Up 41¢ $1 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 29? BUY Up 41¢ $2 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 28? SELL Down 100¢ $110 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 29? BUY Up 48¢ $5 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 28? BUY Down 80¢ $80 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 28? SELL Up 9¢ $18 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 28? SELL Up 9¢ $9 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 28? BUY Up 5¢ $10 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 28? BUY Up 13¢ $13 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 27? SELL Down 35¢ $0 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 27? SELL Down 35¢ $35 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 27? BUY Down 68¢ $0 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 27? BUY Down 68¢ $40 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 27? BUY Down 68¢ $20 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 27? BUY Down 68¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 27? BUY Down 68¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 27? BUY Down 68¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 27? SELL Up 30¢ $30 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.85 · official $2.85 (match) · 448 history records