Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T09:08:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9E 0x9e10…5721 sports 28 markets active 8h ago coverage 228d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! loses its big bets
Total PnL +$4,624 (+19%) realized +$4,624 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +27% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +10% what you keep after slip
Net edge+10%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate57%16W / 12L
Whale WR29%big bets
Drawdown54%max
Avg bet$869per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$54est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,754
7 days−$2,962
14 days−$2,962
30 days−$2,962
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% +$5,255
other 13% −$1,381
economics 2% +$530
world 1% +$143
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+15.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +6.8% -3.4% 55% 45% -46.9%
≤30d 20 +6.8% -3.4% 55% 45% -46.9%
≤90d 20 +6.8% -3.4% 55% 45% -46.9%
all 28 +27.1% +15.0% 57% 50% +7.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +15.0% 50% +7.4%
10% +4.0% 43% -2.9%
15% -6.0% 43% -12.3%
20% -15.3% 43% -20.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 70% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -41% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +27% · $-wt +19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 29% (≥$507) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early +60% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$699 vs −$553 · ×1.26 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.69 per $1 lost it wins $1.69
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

228d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$4,624
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses16 / 12
Whale WR (big bets)29%
Est. fees paid−$54
Open positions0
Markets (closed)28 / 28
History coverage228d
Avg bet$869
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 28 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $141 +$143 +101%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $269 +$38 +14%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $255 +$331 +130%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $254 +$267 +105%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $286 −$286 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $256 −$256 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $1,259 −$1,259 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $1,999 −$1,999 -100%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 15 $51 −$2 -4%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 $0 +0%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $354 +$185 +52%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $460 +$84 +18%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $429 +$31 +7%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $507 −$507 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $267 +$161 +60%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $51 +$149 +291%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $51 −$29 -56%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $102 +$98 +97%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 13 $71 −$71 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $51 −$41 -80%
Will Arsenal win on 2025-11-30? Dec 07 $500 −$500 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Team Falcons (BO3) Dec 07 $500 +$720 +144%
Will Arsenal win on 2025-12-06? Dec 06 $1,028 −$927 -90%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? Nov 21 $498 +$530 +106%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 09 $7,623 +$6,624 +87%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports (BO5) Nov 09 $6,067 −$757 -12%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 01 $300 +$1,153 +384%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 (BO5) Oct 31 $641 +$666 +104%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 49¢ $141 8h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $307 9h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 87¢ $586 9h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 37¢ $255 11h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 87¢ $269 12h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 48¢ $254 21h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 81¢ $1,999 29h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 40¢ $102 29h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 28¢ $49 29h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 21¢ $51 29h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 60¢ $1,157 30h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 24¢ $256 30h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 17¢ $51 30h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 35¢ $234 30h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 65¢ $354 33h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $545 33h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 84¢ $460 35h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 93¢ $429 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 99¢ $429 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 61¢ $267 2d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $200 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes $1 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes $22 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $507 2d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $20 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes $10 4d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $51 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $51 4d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 20¢ $51 4d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $51 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 76 history records