Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:12:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9E 0x9e15…41a6 sports 238 markets active 5d ago coverage 23d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$314 (-8%) realized −$314 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate34%80W / 158L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day17.4pace
Fees−$68est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$46
14 days−$186
30 days−$356
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% −$298
other 8% +$5
crypto 4% −$63
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-23.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -45.5% -50.7% 18% 18% -35.0%
≤30d 238 -15.8% -23.8% 34% 33% -17.6%
≤90d 238 -15.8% -23.8% 34% 33% -17.6%
all 238 -15.8% -23.8% 34% 33% -17.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.8% 33% -17.6%
10% -31.1% 32% -25.5%
15% -37.8% 31% -32.7%
20% -43.9% 28% -39.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$14 · ×1.67 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$314
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses80 / 158
Est. fees paid−$68
Open positions0
Markets (closed)238 / 238
History coverage23d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day17.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 238 Trades
no open positions (132 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -94%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -95%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -95%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$3 +140%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -94%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 2 Ecuador? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $3 +$13 +408%
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $9 +$7 +79%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $14 −$8 -59%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $10 +$24 +234%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Australia 3 - 0 Türkiye? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 2 Türkiye? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $13 +$22 +165%
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H Moneyline Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $15 −$5 -32%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $6 −$6 -97%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $10 +$16 +162%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -96%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 13 $5 +$5 +89%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand P Jun 13 $6 −$6 -98%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $10 +$27 +262%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $9 −$9 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $11 −$11 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $20 +$32 +158%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 08 $33 −$33 -99%
XRP Up or Down - June 8, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -97%
PortlandFire vs. Los Angeles Sparks Jun 07 $9 −$9 -98%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 07 $10 $0 -3%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 07 $33 −$33 -99%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 07 $10 +$7 +67%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 20¢ $3 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $2 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $2 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $2 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $2 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $2 5d
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 1 Ecuador? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 5d
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 1 Ecuador? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 5d
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 2 Ecuador? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 5d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $16 5d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $3 5d
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 1 Curaçao? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 5d
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 5d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL TheMongolz 100¢ $16 5d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 55¢ $9 5d
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 5d
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 5d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 5d
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 24¢ $4 5d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL T1 99¢ $34 6d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 29¢ $10 6d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Top Esports 31¢ $10 6d
Exact Score: Australia 3 - 0 Türkiye? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 6d
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 2 Türkiye? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 6d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Tampa Bay Rays 26¢ $5 6d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 100¢ $35 6d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 37¢ $13 6d
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H Moneyline BUY Knicks 36¢ $15 6d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 432 history records