Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T21:37:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9E 0x9e16…4698 sports 378 markets active 2h ago coverage 172d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$346 (-4%) realized −$322 · open −$24
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate49%184W / 192L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$77est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$350
7 days+$118
14 days−$80
30 days−$156
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 75% −$578
other 21% +$185
crypto 4% −$79
weather 0% +$1
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-21.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -36.7% -42.7% 39% 39% +0.1%
≤30d 172 -14.0% -22.2% 49% 49% -13.7%
≤90d 356 -19.9% -27.5% 46% 44% -17.3%
all 376 -13.5% -21.7% 49% 47% -14.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.7% 47% -14.0%
10% -29.2% 44% -22.3%
15% -36.1% 40% -29.8%
20% -42.3% 36% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$20 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

172d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized−$322
Unrealized−$24
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses184 / 192
Est. fees paid−$77
Open positions2
Markets (closed)376 / 378
History coverage172d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 376 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Over 58¢ 62¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+6%)
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score No 43¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 103 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $270 +$93 +35%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $35 +$22 +64%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $13 −$13 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 20 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 20 $1 $0 +20%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $69 +$8 +11%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $50 −$50 -99%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $9 −$9 -99%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $49 +$39 +79%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $104 +$109 +105%
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $69 +$61 +90%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $149 +$104 +70%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $28 −$28 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $5 +$4 +74%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $42 −$41 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 18 $2 +$1 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -96%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $23 +$16 +67%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $61 −$60 -99%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $1 −$1 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $34 −$34 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $73 −$72 -99%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $13 −$13 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 09 $23 −$22 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 09 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 09 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 09 $2 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 09 $1 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 09 $5 +$4 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 09 $1 +$2 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$1 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -95%
Will Armenia win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 09 $7 +$4 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 09 $3 −$2 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 09 $7 +$3 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 09 $2 +$2 +86%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 58¢ $10 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY No 43¢ $25 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 100¢ $363 2h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 66¢ $57 3h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $57 3h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 76¢ $213 3h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 44¢ $13 6h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $35 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $10 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET SELL Up 48¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 12h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 55¢ $50 18h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 28¢ $18 18h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 18h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 55¢ $9 19h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 52¢ $41 19h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY No 55¢ $49 24h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score SELL No 100¢ $212 24h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 48¢ $104 30h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $254 46h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 58¢ $149 47h
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 0.5 BUY Under 52¢ $22 2d
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 0.5 BUY Under 52¢ $46 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY No 49¢ $28 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $9 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 45¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.63 · official $10.63 (match) · 776 history records