Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T09:52:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
9E 0x9e17…a919 weather 19 markets active 2h ago coverage 96d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$16 (+1%) realized +$17 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate73%11W / 4L
Drawdown58%max
Avg bet$113per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$279now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
tech 39% +$14
other 16% −$6
world 13% −$4
economics 13% $0
weather 12% +$9
sports 5% $0
crypto 3% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 15 +1.5% -8.2% 73% 0% -8.8%
all 15 +1.5% -8.2% 73% 0% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.2% 0% -8.8%
10% -17.0% 0% -17.5%
15% -25.0% 0% -25.5%
20% -32.4% 0% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 65% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.56 per $1 lost it wins $2.56
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

96d coverage
Net worth$279
Realized+$17
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses11 / 4
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions4
Markets (closed)15 / 19
History coverage96d
Avg bet$113
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown58%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 93¢ 93¢ $130 $130 −$0 (-0%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 98¢ 98¢ $130 $130 −$0 (-0%)
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-2%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 22 $280 −$1 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on April 10? May 19 $10 $0 +2%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.30 and $1.40 on April 10? May 19 $15 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on April 10? May 19 $15 +$1 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 10? May 19 $20 +$1 +3%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on April 10? May 19 $30 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April May 19 $467 +$12 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 16°C on March 30? Apr 01 $40 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C or below on March 30? Apr 01 $55 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 18°C on March 30? Apr 01 $56 +$2 +4%
Will Anthropic have the #2 AI model at the end of March 2026? Apr 01 $118 +$2 +2%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Mar 30 $269 $0 -0%
US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? Mar 30 $273 −$4 -1%
Will Databricks not IPO by June 30, 2026? Mar 30 $50 −$5 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 8°C on March 18? Mar 30 $84 +$4 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 98¢ $130 1h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 93¢ $130 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 12¢ $8 1h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? SELL Yes 22¢ $82 1h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $102 1h
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 98¢ $280 1h
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 98¢ $280 33d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April BUY Yes 98¢ $193 73d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.30 and $1.40 on April 10? BUY Yes 95¢ $15 73d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 10? BUY Yes 96¢ $20 73d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on April 10? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 73d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on April 10? BUY Yes 94¢ $15 73d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on April 10? BUY Yes 98¢ $10 73d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April SELL Yes 98¢ $283 73d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April BUY Yes 95¢ $275 82d
Will Anthropic have the #2 AI model at the end of March 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $118 84d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 18°C on March 30? BUY Yes 96¢ $56 84d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C or below on March 30? BUY Yes 99¢ $55 84d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 16°C on March 30? BUY Yes 98¢ $40 84d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee SELL Yes 97¢ $269 84d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee BUY Yes 97¢ $269 84d
US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? SELL Yes 74¢ $269 84d
US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? BUY Yes 75¢ $273 84d
Will Databricks not IPO by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 86¢ $45 84d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 8°C on March 18? BUY Yes 96¢ $84 96d
Will Databricks not IPO by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $50 96d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $279.21 · official $279.21 (match) · 37 history records