Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T22:09:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
9E 0x9e17…0b08 other 29 markets active 0h ago coverage 56d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$114 (+9%) realized +$106 · open +$8
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%9W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit31%portable
Net worth$662now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$84
7 days−$7
14 days+$96
30 days+$96
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 78% +$6
sports 20% +$96
tech 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-25.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -29.9% -36.6% 38% 38% -11.3%
≤30d 20 -18.1% -25.9% 45% 45% +5.9%
≤90d 21 -17.3% -25.2% 43% 43% +3.2%
all 21 -17.3% -25.2% 43% 43% +3.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.2% 43% +3.2%
10% -32.3% 33% -6.7%
15% -38.9% 24% -15.7%
20% -44.9% 24% -24.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 67% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt +14% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -27% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$15 · ×2.02 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.52 per $1 lost it wins $1.52
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

56d coverage
Net worth$662
Realized+$106
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses9 / 12
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions8
Markets (closed)21 / 29
History coverage56d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit31%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No 92¢ 93¢ $304 $308 +$4 (+1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Yes 77¢ 82¢ $77 $82 +$6 (+7%)
Will South Korea be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Yes 73¢ 71¢ $73 $71 −$2 (-3%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? No 60¢ 62¢ $58 $60 +$2 (+4%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Yes 83¢ 82¢ $42 $41 −$0 (-1%)
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? No 79¢ 78¢ $40 $39 −$0 (-1%)
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Yes 86¢ 86¢ $35 $34 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 82¢ 79¢ $26 $25 −$1 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $10 +$10 +97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $42 +$58 +140%
Morocco leading at halftime? Jun 25 $17 +$26 +158%
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $16 +$14 +90%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $32 +$8 +24%
Côte d'Ivoire leading at halftime? Jun 23 $16 −$16 -100%
France vs. Iraq: Draw at halftime? Jun 22 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Jun 22 $8 −$8 -98%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $12 −$12 -98%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 22 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Jun 22 $7 −$7 -98%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 22 $16 −$16 -98%
France leading at halftime? Jun 22 $17 −$17 -98%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $21 −$20 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $89 +$11 +12%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $83 +$17 +20%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $46 −$46 -100%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $20 +$5 +26%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $73 +$127 +172%
Lakers vs. Rockets May 02 $104 −$2 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will South Korea be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY Yes 73¢ $73 11m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 83¢ $42 1h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 79¢ $40 1h
Côte d'Ivoire leading at halftime? BUY No 36¢ $14 3d
Côte d'Ivoire leading at halftime? BUY No 36¢ $2 3d
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? BUY Yes 86¢ $35 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 49¢ $11 4d
France vs. Iraq: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 23¢ $7 4d
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $8 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 50¢ $10 4d
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 36¢ $12 4d
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY No 39¢ $20 4d
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 52¢ $16 4d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 16¢ $7 4d
Argentina leading at halftime? BUY No 50¢ $16 4d
Morocco leading at halftime? BUY No 38¢ $17 4d
France leading at halftime? BUY No 27¢ $17 4d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 39¢ $21 4d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 60¢ $58 6d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 41¢ $42 6d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 82¢ $26 8d
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 77¢ $78 9d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 80¢ $32 11d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $89 11d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $46 11d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 83¢ $83 11d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $37 14d
Xi Jinping out before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $185 14d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $37 14d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 79¢ $20 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $662.23 · official $662.24 (match) · 97 history records