Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T03:19:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
9E 0x9e19…1495 sports 123 markets active 1h ago coverage 94d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$8,825 (+19%) realized +$8,834 · open −$9
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%81W / 40L
Whale WR81%big bets
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$386per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$353est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$549now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$130
7 days+$139
14 days−$210
30 days+$100
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 67% +$5,562
other 31% +$2,379
world 2% +$143
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+1.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +40.6% +27.2% 71% 71% -0.2%
≤30d 26 +25.2% +13.3% 65% 65% -7.6%
≤90d 119 +12.7% +2.0% 67% 67% +6.3%
all 121 +12.1% +1.4% 67% 67% +6.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.4% 67% +6.1%
10% -8.3% 61% -4.0%
15% -17.2% 58% -13.3%
20% -25.3% 42% -21.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 81% (≥$525) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late +21% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$248 vs −$301 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.67 per $1 lost it wins $1.67
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

94d coverage
Net worth$549
Realized+$8,834
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses81 / 40
Whale WR (big bets)81%
Est. fees paid−$353
Open positions2
Markets (closed)121 / 123
History coverage94d
Avg bet$386
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 121 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
New Zealand vs. Belgium: Belgium O/U 1.5 Over 82¢ 78¢ $303 $289 −$15 (-5%)
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Belgium 67¢ 68¢ $255 $260 +$6 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 38 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $433 −$433 -100%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $145 −$144 -99%
Norway vs. France: 1st Half O/U 1.5 AND Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 AND Jun 26 $100 +$149 +149%
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $203 +$101 +50%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $100 +$60 +60%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $203 +$137 +67%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $170 +$269 +158%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $158 −$155 -98%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $100 −$98 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $295 +$90 +31%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $153 +$142 +93%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $100 −$99 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $153 −$152 -99%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $107 +$96 +90%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $65 +$42 +66%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $32 +$33 +103%
Spread: Germany (-5.5) Jun 14 $8 +$24 +300%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $373 −$373 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $159 +$218 +137%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $238 −$237 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $280 +$319 +114%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $200 +$80 +40%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $286 +$125 +44%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $199 +$87 +43%
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? May 28 $161 +$19 +12%
Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Leeds United FC: Both Teams to Score May 12 $49 +$37 +76%
VfL Wolfsburg vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 2.5 May 09 $1,126 −$1,125 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 09 $1,001 +$170 +17%
Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5) May 07 $555 +$345 +62%
Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5) May 06 $1,001 +$546 +55%
FC Metz vs. AS Monaco FC: O/U 2.5 May 03 $987 +$413 +42%
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. RB Leipzig: O/U 2.5 May 02 $2,483 +$933 +38%
FC Bayern München vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846: O/U 4.5 May 02 $1,860 +$618 +33%
Eintracht Frankfurt vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 1.5 May 02 $1,014 +$844 +83%
FK Shakhtar Donetsk vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 2.5 May 01 $219 +$281 +129%
SC Braga vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 2.5 May 01 $204 +$296 +146%
Oilers vs. Ducks Apr 30 $669 −$660 -99%
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. RC Strasbourg Alsace: O/U 1.5 Apr 30 $417 −$410 -98%
Nottingham Forest FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 1.5 Apr 30 $429 −$425 -99%
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. RC Strasbourg Alsace: O/U 2.5 Apr 30 $254 −$250 -98%
Nottingham Forest FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 30 $234 −$230 -98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29? Apr 30 $554 +$346 +62%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score Apr 30 $500 +$500 +100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? Apr 29 $911 +$880 +97%
Manchester United FC vs. Brentford FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 27 $1,018 +$604 +59%
Will Russia win on 2026-03-31? Apr 27 $27 −$27 -100%
Real Betis Balompié vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 2.5 Apr 24 $299 −$299 -100%
Will RB Leipzig win on 2026-04-24? Apr 24 $200 +$99 +50%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-22? Apr 22 $200 +$31 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 67¢ $257 1h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 63¢ $274 1h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 72¢ $145 2h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 79¢ $159 2h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: Belgium O/U 1.5 BUY Over 82¢ $305 7h
Norway vs. France: 1st Half O/U 1.5 AND Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 AND BUY 40¢ $100 8h
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 66¢ $203 8h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $100 29h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $203 32h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 38¢ $170 2d
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $158 7d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $100 7d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 76¢ $295 8d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $295 8d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $153 8d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $100 9d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 63¢ $153 11d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 62¢ $200 11d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $107 12d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 99¢ $107 12d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 59¢ $65 12d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $65 12d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $32 12d
Spread: Germany (-5.5) BUY Germany 25¢ $0 12d
Spread: Germany (-5.5) BUY Germany 25¢ $8 12d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 50¢ $363 13d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 50¢ $10 13d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 50¢ $0 13d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 41¢ $159 13d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 1.5 BUY Over 79¢ $238 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $548.95 · official $548.85 (match) · 388 history records