Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:10:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
9E 0x9e1c…17c5 other 3 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$37 (-7%) realized −$35 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$180per market
Trades / day8.5pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$89now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$62
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-30.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -22.8% -30.2% 0% 0% -26.2%
≤30d 2 -22.8% -30.2% 0% 0% -26.2%
≤90d 2 -22.8% -30.2% 0% 0% -26.2%
all 2 -22.8% -30.2% 0% 0% -26.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.2% 0% -26.2%
10% -36.9% 0% -33.3%
15% -43.0% 0% -39.7%
20% -48.6% 0% -45.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$30 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$89
Realized−$35
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)2 / 3
History coverage1d
Avg bet$180
Trades / day8.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-30? No 23¢ 22¢ $91 $89 −$2 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-07-01? Jun 29 $213 −$18 -8%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $113 −$42 -37%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-30? BUY No 23¢ $93 1h
Will England win on 2026-07-01? SELL No 23¢ $93 1h
Will England win on 2026-07-01? BUY No 24¢ $102 1h
Will England win on 2026-07-01? SELL No 23¢ $102 1h
Will England win on 2026-07-01? BUY No 24¢ $111 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-30? SELL No 22¢ $111 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-30? BUY No 23¢ $121 2h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $71 24h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $113 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $88.98 · official $88.98 (match) · 9 history records