Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T16:59:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9E 0x9e1c…61fd other 42 markets active 1h ago coverage 301d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$15 (-2%) realized −$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate22%9W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$26now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$3
14 days−$5
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 50% −$5
other 23% −$1
culture 13% −$3
politics 6% −$1
economics 5% −$5
crypto 2% $0
sports 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -1.0% -10.4% 0% 0% -10.6%
≤30d 10 -1.7% -11.0% 0% 0% -10.9%
≤90d 10 -1.7% -11.0% 0% 0% -10.9%
all 41 -4.4% -13.5% 22% 2% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.5% 2% -11.5%
10% -21.8% 0% -20.0%
15% -29.4% 0% -27.7%
20% -36.3% 0% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 68% · top 2 78% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.14 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

301d coverage
Net worth$26
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses9 / 32
Open positions1
Markets (closed)41 / 42
History coverage301d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 86¢ 86¢ $26 $26 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $26 $0 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $60 −$2 -3%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $62 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $19 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $28 −$1 -2%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $27 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 10 $29 −$1 -5%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $60 −$1 -1%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $30 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 09 $8 $0 -4%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 25 $22 −$3 -13%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 16 $6 $0 +2%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Dec 12 $11 +$2 +14%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $2 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 26 $5 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $9 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $6 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $3 $0 +0%
Trump out as President in 2025? Oct 24 $6 $0 +0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 24 $6 $0 +0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Oct 23 $6 $0 +0%
Will ANO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Oct 06 $5 $0 +2%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Sep 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 13 $1 $0 -0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Sep 10 $6 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 10 $7 $0 -4%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Sep 09 $16 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Sep 09 $16 $0 -0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 08 $2 −$1 -48%
Will Eric Adams win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 08 $13 $0 +2%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 02 $3 $0 -4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2025? Sep 02 $13 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 02 $12 $0 +1%
Will Taylor Fritz win the 2025 US Open? Aug 28 $13 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 28 $12 $0 +0%
Will 2025 be the hottest year on record? Aug 27 $13 $0 +1%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Aug 27 $14 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 26 $23 $0 +0%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Aug 25 $39 $0 -0%
Will Alexei Gorinov win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 25 $14 $0 -0%
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? Aug 25 $17 −$3 -18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $26 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $10 4h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $16 4h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $26 7h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 90¢ $29 7h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $30 9h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $30 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $30 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $19 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 40¢ $19 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $7 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $21 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $28 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $27 6d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $27 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $25 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $5 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $30 6d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 62¢ $27 8d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY Yes 65¢ $5 8d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY Yes 65¢ $23 8d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 37¢ $29 9d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 39¢ $30 9d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 44¢ $30 9d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 43¢ $6 9d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 43¢ $24 9d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $24 10d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $6 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.80 · official $25.80 (match) · 130 history records