Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T16:29:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9E 0x9e1d…0374 crypto 401 markets active 2h ago coverage 242d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$259 (-3%) realized −$259 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate93%373W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days−$31
14 days−$56
30 days−$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 81% −$172
other 12% +$67
sports 6% −$167
finance 2% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 53 -0.4% -9.9% 98% 0% -12.0%
≤30d 224 +0.4% -9.1% 99% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 393 -5.3% -14.3% 93% 0% -22.8%
all 401 +0.7% -8.9% 93% 2% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 2% -12.3%
10% -17.6% 2% -20.7%
15% -25.6% 2% -28.4%
20% -32.9% 2% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$48 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

242d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$259
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses373 / 28
Open positions0
Markets (closed)401 / 401
History coverage242d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 401 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 10AM ET Jun 28 $43 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 28 $16 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 28 $16 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down on June 27? Jun 27 $50 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 27? Jun 27 $49 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 27? Jun 27 $50 +$2 +5%
XRP Up or Down - June 27, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 27 $10 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 25 $7 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 25 $16 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 25 $16 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 25 $16 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 25 $15 +$1 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 24 $16 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 24 $7 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 24 $16 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 24 $16 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 24 $49 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 24 $10 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 24 $16 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 24 $16 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 24 $10 $0 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 11PM ET Jun 24 $49 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $10 $0 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $15 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $29 +$1 +3%
BNB Up or Down - June 23, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 23 $49 −$49 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 1AM ET Jun 23 $50 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 23 $16 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 23 $16 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 23 $16 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 23 $3 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 23 $16 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 22 $16 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 22 $16 $0 +0%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $74 on June 22? Jun 22 $28 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 22 $15 +$1 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 22 $10 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 22 $16 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 11AM ET Jun 22 $50 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 22 $16 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 22 $16 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 22 $16 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 22 $10 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 22 $10 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 22 $16 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 22 $15 +$1 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 22 $15 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 22 $16 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 22 $16 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 2AM ET Jun 22 $50 +$1 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 10AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $43 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $16 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $16 13h
Solana Up or Down on June 27? BUY Down 99¢ $50 24h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 27? BUY Up 99¢ $49 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 27? BUY Up 95¢ $50 24h
XRP Up or Down - June 27, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $10 27h
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $16 3d
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $7 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $16 3d
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $16 3d
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $15 3d
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $7 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $16 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $16 3d
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $16 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $49 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $16 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $0 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $16 4d
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 11PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $49 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 97¢ $29 5d
BNB Up or Down - June 23, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $49 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 97¢ $10 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 23? BUY No 97¢ $15 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 1AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $16 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $16 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.90 · official $0.00 (match) · 2271 history records