Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T12:16:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9E 0x9e20…e2dc crypto 188 markets active 2h ago coverage 163d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$38 (-0%) realized −$38 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate54%101W / 85L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$96per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$97now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 39% −$3
other 21% −$2
politics 20% −$4
sports 12% −$32
world 3% +$2
culture 3% $0
economics 1% $0
finance 1% $0
tech 0% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-17.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 7 -14.2% -22.3% 86% 0% -10.5%
≤90d 95 -3.3% -12.5% 67% 6% -9.6%
all 186 -8.7% -17.4% 54% 5% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.4% 5% -9.7%
10% -25.3% 4% -18.4%
15% -32.5% 3% -26.2%
20% -39.2% 2% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

163d coverage
Net worth$97
Realized−$38
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses101 / 85
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)186 / 188
History coverage163d
Avg bet$96
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 186 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (HIGH) $87.50 Week of June 22 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $86 $86 +$0 (+0%)
Will Berhanu Nega be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? No 100¢ 99¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C or below on June 1? Jun 26 $12 $0 +0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 26 $15 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $70 in May? Jun 26 $59 $0 +0%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 31 $4 −$4 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 30? May 31 $75 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 29? May 30 $87 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? May 29 $101 $0 +0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 27 $95 $0 -0%
Roland Garros WTA: Hailey Baptiste vs Xiyu Wang May 27 $5 −$4 -99%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 27 $95 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 26? May 27 $105 $0 +0%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 26 $109 −$4 -4%
Will XRP reach $1.60 May 18-24? May 25 $109 $0 +0%
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 24 $101 $0 -0%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Aurora (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 24 $3 −$3 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 23? May 24 $112 $0 +0%
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $65 Week of May 18 2026? May 23 $113 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 21? May 22 $39 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 21? May 22 $73 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 20? May 21 $112 $0 +0%
Roland Garros, Qualification WTA: Irene Burillo Escorihuela vs Viktori May 20 $4 +$1 +32%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 19? May 20 $106 $0 +0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 19 $105 $0 -0%
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 19 $101 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 18? May 19 $110 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 17? May 18 $110 $0 +0%
Valorant: 100 Thieves vs LOUD (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Playoffs May 17 $5 +$3 +76%
Will Germany win the televote for Eurovision 2026? May 17 $197 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the televote for Eurovision 2026? May 16 $98 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 14? May 16 $107 $0 +0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 14 $203 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 on May 13? May 14 $107 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 12? May 13 $107 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026? May 12 $106 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $70 May 4-10? May 11 $106 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026? May 10 $106 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? May 09 $97 $0 -0%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.10 Week of May 4 2026? May 09 $106 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 7? May 08 $106 $0 +0%
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 07 $98 $0 -0%
Francavilla: Juan Carlos Prado vs Ryan Seggerman May 07 $8 −$4 -50%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026? May 07 $110 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on May 5? May 06 $109 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026? May 05 $109 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 3? May 04 $109 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026? May 03 $109 $0 +0%
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $100 Week of April 27 2 May 02 $109 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April? May 01 $108 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 27 to April 29, 2026? Apr 30 $108 $0 +0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 28, 2026? Apr 29 $109 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (HIGH) $87.50 Week of June 22 2026? BUY No 100¢ $86 1h
Will Solana dip to $70 in May? BUY No 100¢ $59 26d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY JD Gaming 56¢ $4 26d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C or below on June 1? BUY No 100¢ $12 26d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $75 27d
Will Berhanu Nega be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? BUY No 100¢ $11 27d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 29? BUY No 100¢ $87 28d
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $15 28d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $101 30d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $95 30d
Roland Garros WTA: Hailey Baptiste vs Xiyu Wang BUY Hailey Baptiste 67¢ $5 30d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $95 30d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $95 30d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $95 30d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 26? BUY No 100¢ $105 30d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? SELL Yes 96¢ $105 30d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? BUY Yes 100¢ $109 32d
Will XRP reach $1.60 May 18-24? BUY No 100¢ $109 33d
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL No 100¢ $101 33d
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Aurora (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs BUY Team Spirit 54¢ $3 33d
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY No 100¢ $101 33d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 23? BUY No 100¢ $112 34d
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $65 Week of May 18 2026? BUY No 100¢ $113 35d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 21? BUY Yes 100¢ $39 36d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 21? BUY Yes 100¢ $73 36d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 20? BUY No 100¢ $112 37d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 19? BUY No 100¢ $106 38d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $105 38d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $105 38d
Roland Garros, Qualification WTA: Irene Burillo Escorihuela vs Viktori BUY Viktoriya Tomova 75¢ $4 38d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $97.36 · official $97.36 (match) · 389 history records