Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T04:40:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
9E 0x9e21…233e other 11 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,850 (+17%) realized +$1,909 · open −$59
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +48% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +19% what you keep after slip
Net edge+19%after slip
Net WR88%break-even
Win rate88%7W / 1L
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$981per market
Trades / day12.2pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$1,941now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% +$2,390
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +88%
net ROI/market (all)+34.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +48.4% +34.3% 88% 88% +16.8%
≤30d 8 +48.4% +34.3% 88% 88% +16.8%
≤90d 8 +48.4% +34.3% 88% 88% +16.8%
all 8 +48.4% +34.3% 88% 88% +16.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.2 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +34.3% 88% +16.8%
10% ← realistic here +21.4% 75% +5.7%
15% +9.7% 50% -4.5%
20% -1.1% 50% -13.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 53% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +29% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +48% · $-wt +29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$450 vs −$704 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×4.48 per $1 lost it wins $4.48
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$1,941
Realized+$1,909
Unrealized−$59
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses7 / 1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)8 / 11
History coverage1d
Avg bet$981
Trades / day12.2
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $2,000 $1,941 −$59 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1,015 −$704 -69%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $2,508 +$298 +12%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06- Jun 20 $306 +$492 +161%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $2,014 +$581 +29%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $506 +$327 +65%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $986 +$1,076 +109%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $767 +$221 +29%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $300 +$157 +52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 51¢ $2,029 1m
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 16¢ $311 2m
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 49¢ $1,015 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $2,806 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY 44¢ $305 4h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $2,508 4h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $2,595 4h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 77¢ $2,014 6h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 BUY 18¢ $51 10h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06- BUY 38¢ $306 10h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $506 10h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $2,062 25h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $986 27h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $988 28h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 77¢ $767 31h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $457 31h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 65¢ $300 33h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,941.18 · official $2,291.18 · 20 history records