Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T23:51:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9E 0x9e24…2406 other 6 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$156 (+83%) realized +$156 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate33%2W / 4L
Drawdown39%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 68% +$213
sports 27% −$48
crypto 5% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-23.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -14.8% -23.0% 33% 17% +70.2%
≤30d 6 -14.8% -23.0% 33% 17% +70.2%
≤90d 6 -14.8% -23.0% 33% 17% +70.2%
all 6 -14.8% -23.0% 33% 17% +70.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.0% 17% +70.2%
10% -30.3% 17% +53.9%
15% -37.1% 17% +39.0%
20% -43.2% 17% +25.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +88% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt +88% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$116 vs −$16 · ×7.07 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.54 per $1 lost it wins $3.54
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$156
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses2 / 4
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)6 / 6
History coverage1d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown39%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 6 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $102 +$231 +226%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 20 $10 +$1 +6%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $51 −$48 -93%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $10 −$3 -27%
Florian Wirtz: 1+ goals Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $333 1h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 2¢ $3 1h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? SELL Yes 13¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 2h
Florian Wirtz: 1+ goals BUY Yes 21¢ $5 2h
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals BUY Yes 25¢ $10 2h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $51 2h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 30¢ $102 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 11 history records