Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T11:29:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9E 0x9e25…f785 crypto 42 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (99 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$66 (-13%) realized −$61 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -35% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -50% what you keep after slip
Net edge-50%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate29%12W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day99.0pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$152
other 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (99 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-41.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 -34.7% -41.0% 29% 20% -36.5%
≤30d 41 -34.7% -41.0% 29% 20% -36.5%
≤90d 41 -34.7% -41.0% 29% 20% -36.5%
all 41 -34.7% -41.0% 29% 20% -36.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover99.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -41.0% 20% -36.5%
10% ← realistic here -46.6% 12% -42.5%
15% -51.8% 12% -48.1%
20% -56.5% 10% -53.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -30% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -35% · $-wt -30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -36% → late -34% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$8 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$61
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses12 / 29
Open positions1
Markets (closed)41 / 42
History coverage1d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day99.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Down 9¢ 4¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 28 $23 −$22 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 28 $18 −$17 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 28 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 28 $11 −$9 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 28 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 28 $5 −$4 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 28 $11 +$34 +309%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 28 $11 +$13 +123%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 28 $26 +$4 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 28 $14 −$13 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 28 $11 +$6 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 28 $26 −$14 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 28 $28 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 28 $22 −$21 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 28 $21 +$8 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 28 $11 −$9 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 28 $32 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 28 $2 −$1 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 28 $6 +$5 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 28 $7 −$1 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 28 $11 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 28 $8 −$3 -41%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 28, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 28 $11 +$2 +14%
XRP Up or Down - June 28, 4AM ET Jun 28 $7 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 28 $11 −$6 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 28 $5 $0 -2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 28 $5 −$1 -16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 28 $13 −$6 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 28 $10 −$8 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 28 $20 −$10 -50%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 28 $11 −$9 -89%
XRP Up or Down - June 28, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 28 $5 +$1 +11%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 28 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 28 $11 −$3 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 28 $26 −$4 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 28 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 28 $11 −$11 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $11 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET SELL Down 8¢ $2 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $11 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET SELL Down 1¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $22 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET SELL Down 3¢ $2 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $11 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $5 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET SELL Down 5¢ $2 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $2 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $11 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET SELL Down 1¢ $1 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $5 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $11 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET SELL Up 70¢ $45 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $11 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET SELL Down 78¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET SELL Up 87¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET SELL Down 3¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET SELL Up 81¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $11 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.00 · official $15.00 · 107 history records