Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:37:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9E 0x9e28…e44a world 25 markets active 2h ago coverage 471d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate44%11W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 60% +$1
other 16% −$1
sports 12% $0
politics 8% $0
weather 3% −$1
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 10 +2.5% -7.3% 30% 10% -9.2%
≤90d 10 +2.5% -7.3% 30% 10% -9.2%
all 25 -0.8% -10.2% 44% 8% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 8% -9.5%
10% -18.8% 4% -18.2%
15% -26.7% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 66% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

471d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses11 / 14
Open positions0
Markets (closed)25 / 25
History coverage471d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 25 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $33 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $9 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 04 $29 +$2 +5%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 03 $1 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $46 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 02 $38 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 31 $6 −$1 -11%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 30 $20 −$1 -4%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $141 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $3 +$1 +35%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Dec 10 $1 $0 +6%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 28 $13 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2700 and $2800 on June 3? Jun 04 $1 $0 +1%
Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian presidential election? May 20 $13 $0 +2%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 06 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $14 $0 +2%
Will the LA Clippers win the Western Conference? Mar 29 $1 $0 +12%
Will Sławomir Mentzen be the next President of Poland? Mar 28 $11 $0 -0%
March Madness: Will 0 teams seeded #1 make the Final 4? Mar 28 $2 −$1 -63%
Will 'Alto Knights' gross less than 5-7m on opening weekend? Mar 25 $14 $0 +2%
Will the AfD win between 20% and 22% of the vote in the German electio Mar 21 $14 $0 +1%
Missouri vs. Oklahoma Mar 04 $14 $0 +0%
Massachusetts vs. St. Bonaventure Mar 04 $14 $0 +0%
Raptors vs. Magic Mar 04 $14 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 55-56°F on March 5? Mar 04 $16 −$1 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $33 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $33 3h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $9 9h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $9 14h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 25¢ $9 14d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $8 15d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL Yes $1 15d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL Yes $0 15d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL Yes $0 15d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL Yes $0 15d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY Yes $1 15d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY Yes $0 15d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY Yes $0 15d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes $2 15d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes $1 16d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes $1 16d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $4 16d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $16 16d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $18 16d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 31¢ $38 16d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $22 17d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $21 18d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes $0 18d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes $1 18d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes $1 18d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes $3 18d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $32 18d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $12 18d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $44 18d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 20¢ $20 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 83 history records