Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T07:40:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
9E 0x9e2c…e999 world 5 markets active 0h ago coverage 8d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate40%2W / 3L
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$336per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 8d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 55% −$1
other 45% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.2% -9.3% 50% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 5 +0.1% -9.4% 40% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 5 +0.1% -9.4% 40% 0% -9.4%
all 5 +0.1% -9.4% 40% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 67% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$0 · ×3.65 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.65 per $1 lost it wins $3.65
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses2 / 3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)5 / 5
History coverage8d
Avg bet$336
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 5 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will US annex any territory in 2026? Jun 23 $485 +$2 +0%
Will Russia capture Sofiivka by June 30? Jun 23 $484 $0 +0%
Will any country join the Board of Peace by June 30? Jun 16 $263 +$1 +0%
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by June 3 Jun 16 $223 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026? Jun 15 $224 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will US annex any territory in 2026? SELL No 92¢ $1 25m
Will US annex any territory in 2026? SELL No 93¢ $486 26m
Will US annex any territory in 2026? BUY No 92¢ $485 1h
Will Russia capture Sofiivka by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $484 2h
Will Russia capture Sofiivka by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $484 4h
Will any country join the Board of Peace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $264 7d
Will any country join the Board of Peace by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $263 7d
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by June 3 SELL No 94¢ $223 7d
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by June 3 BUY No 94¢ $223 7d
Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026? SELL No 95¢ $224 7d
Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026? BUY No 95¢ $224 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 11 history records