Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T21:16:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9E 0x9e30…02a0 sports 188 markets active 2d ago coverage 73d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$318 (-5%) realized −$318 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate59%110W / 78L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Fees−$53est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$227
14 days−$244
30 days−$244
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% −$295
other 16% −$47
crypto 0% −$18
politics 0% +$4
finance 0% $0
weather 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -13.2% -21.5% 54% 46% -23.2%
≤30d 21 -4.6% -13.7% 48% 43% -21.6%
≤90d 188 +0.3% -9.3% 59% 57% -14.4%
all 188 +0.3% -9.3% 59% 57% -14.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 57% -14.4%
10% -18.0% 52% -22.6%
15% -25.9% 40% -30.1%
20% -33.2% 31% -37.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$27 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

73d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$318
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses110 / 78
Est. fees paid−$53
Open positions0
Markets (closed)188 / 188
History coverage73d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 188 Trades
no open positions (57 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Panama vs. England: O/U 5.5 Jun 27 $3 −$3 -98%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $202 −$200 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $121 +$85 +70%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $51 −$50 -99%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $35 −$35 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $302 −$300 -99%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $278 +$24 +9%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $218 +$60 +27%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $117 +$101 +86%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $81 +$37 +46%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $69 +$22 +32%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $26 +$42 +158%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Draw at halftime? Jun 18 $42 −$42 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $22 +$20 +93%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $23 −$1 -5%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $81 −$58 -72%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $86 −$5 -6%
Austria vs. Jordan: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $47 +$49 +105%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $18 +$29 +158%
Will Paderborn win on 2026-05-25? May 25 $57 −$56 -98%
Columbus Crew vs. Atlanta United FC: O/U 2.5 May 24 $81 −$81 -99%
Columbus Crew vs. Atlanta United FC: O/U 1.5 May 24 $61 +$20 +32%
Torino FC vs. Juventus FC: O/U 1.5 May 24 $49 +$13 +26%
US Cremonese vs. Como 1907: O/U 3.5 May 24 $69 −$69 -99%
RS Berkane vs. RCA Zemamra: O/U 0.5 May 24 $91 +$29 +32%
SSC Napoli vs. Udinese Calcio: O/U 4.5 May 24 $75 +$15 +20%
FC Andorra vs. AD Ceuta FC: O/U 3.5 May 24 $58 +$18 +30%
Parma Calcio 1913 vs. US Sassuolo Calcio: O/U 3.5 May 24 $48 +$9 +20%
Will AFC Ajax win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $1 −$1 -97%
Fagiano Okayama vs. Cerezo Ōsaka: O/U 2.5 May 24 $5 +$5 +101%
Los Angeles Galaxy vs. Houston Dynamo: O/U 3.5 May 24 $32 +$12 +38%
Will Los Angeles Galaxy vs. Houston Dynamo end in a draw? May 24 $5 +$1 +10%
Will Vanraure Hachinohe FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $5 −$5 -98%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 222.5 May 24 $99 −$98 -98%
Mirassol FC vs. Fluminense FC: O/U 1.5 May 23 $98 −$97 -99%
São Paulo FC vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 3.5 May 23 $167 +$31 +18%
Girona FC vs. Elche CF: O/U 3.5 May 23 $137 +$29 +22%
FC Bayern München vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 1.5 May 23 $109 +$28 +26%
Audax CS Italiano vs. CD Cobresal: O/U 4.5 May 23 $87 +$22 +25%
Bologna FC 1909 vs. FC Internazionale Milano: O/U 3.5 May 23 $72 +$15 +20%
Hull City AFC vs. Middlesbrough FC: O/U 3.5 May 23 $59 +$13 +23%
Spread: Chicago White Sox (-8.5) May 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $44 +$25 +57%
Dallas Wings vs. Atlanta Dream: O/U 172.5 May 23 $35 +$8 +24%
ADC Juan Pablo II College vs. FBC Melgar: O/U 3.5 May 22 $28 +$8 +28%
ACF Fiorentina vs. Atalanta BC: O/U 3.5 May 22 $18 +$9 +52%
CSyD Macará vs. Club Alianza Atlético: O/U 1.5 May 22 $91 −$90 -99%
Brøndby IF vs. FC København: O/U 1.5 May 21 $51 +$33 +64%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Panama vs. England: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 14¢ $3 2d
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 59¢ $202 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $121 3d
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 62¢ $51 3d
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $35 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 76¢ $302 4d
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 92¢ $278 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 78¢ $218 4d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 53¢ $117 5d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $81 5d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 49¢ $10 5d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 75¢ $69 6d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 38¢ $26 6d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 48¢ $42 11d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 51¢ $22 11d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 49¢ $22 11d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $23 11d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 20¢ $23 11d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 68¢ $81 11d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 60¢ $81 11d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $86 12d
Austria vs. Jordan: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 49¢ $10 12d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $47 12d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 38¢ $18 12d
Will Paderborn win on 2026-05-25? BUY Yes 1¢ $13 35d
Will Paderborn win on 2026-05-25? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 35d
Will Paderborn win on 2026-05-25? BUY Yes 57¢ $38 35d
Columbus Crew vs. Atlanta United FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 78¢ $81 35d
Columbus Crew vs. Atlanta United FC: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $81 35d
Columbus Crew vs. Atlanta United FC: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $61 35d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 332 history records