Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T18:37:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9E 0x9e35…3655 sports 241 markets active 0h ago coverage 61d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$624 (-7%) realized −$616 · open −$8
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate38%89W / 147L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day7.7pace
Fees−$188est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$279now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$236
7 days−$192
14 days−$248
30 days−$465
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% −$656
other 3% −$158
world 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-4.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 -13.3% -21.6% 38% 31% -26.7%
≤30d 149 +12.7% +2.0% 41% 38% -17.2%
≤90d 236 +5.9% -4.2% 38% 35% -19.5%
all 236 +5.9% -4.2% 38% 35% -19.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.2% 35% -19.5%
10% -13.3% 32% -27.2%
15% -21.7% 31% -34.3%
20% -29.4% 29% -40.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +16% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$42 vs −$31 · ×1.36 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

61d coverage
Net worth$279
Realized−$616
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses89 / 147
Est. fees paid−$188
Open positions5
Markets (closed)236 / 241
History coverage61d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day7.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 236 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs 9z 27¢ 68¢ $45 $113 +$68 (+152%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner 9z 29¢ 52¢ $44 $80 +$36 (+81%)
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 2.5 Over 30¢ 28¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-5%)
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 6.5 Over $49 $38 −$11 (-22%)
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs KOLESIE (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Closed Qualifier Playoffs ECHO 44¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+126%)
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs KOLESIE (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Closed Qualifier Playoffs KOLESIE 48¢ $99 $0 −$99 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 134 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $77 −$77 -100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 6.5 Jun 18 $20 −$19 -97%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $14 −$14 -97%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $29 −$28 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $71 −$70 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $25 +$17 +68%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $25 +$1 +3%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $50 +$26 +53%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $8 −$8 -97%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $18 −$12 -64%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $36 −$30 -83%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $16 −$15 -97%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 6.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $14 −$14 -97%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $26 −$25 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $65 −$63 -98%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $25 +$1 +3%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $25 +$11 +45%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs G2 Ares - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $36 +$17 +48%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs G2 Ares (BO3) - European Pro League Series Jun 15 $25 −$13 -54%
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) Jun 15 $15 +$86 +568%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $86 −$85 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $27 +$10 +38%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $42 −$41 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $43 +$48 +112%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $22 −$21 -97%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $32 +$160 +504%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Leo Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $19 −$19 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $15 +$18 +121%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Gro Jun 14 $26 +$13 +53%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $6 +$4 +64%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $28 −$10 -36%
Map Handicap: VP (-1.5) vs illwill (+1.5) Jun 14 $10 +$6 +54%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $10 +$1 +6%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $3 −$3 -98%
Tajikistan vs. India: O/U 3.5 Jun 09 $3 −$3 -98%
Cambodia vs. Hong Kong SAR: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $7 −$4 -53%
Map Handicap: GL (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) Jun 07 $7 −$6 -98%
Ōita Trinita vs. Montedio Yamagata: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $44 −$44 -98%
Fukushima United FC vs. FC Ryūkyū: O/U 1.5 Jun 07 $13 +$14 +103%
Fukushima United FC vs. FC Ryūkyū: Both Teams to Score Jun 07 $1 +$1 +149%
Zweigen Kanazawa vs. Thespa Gunma: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $15 +$15 +99%
Blaublitz Akita vs. Kagoshima United FC: Both Teams to Score Jun 07 $15 −$15 -98%
Argentina vs. Honduras: O/U 3.5 Jun 07 $10 −$10 -98%
Slovakia vs. Montenegro: O/U 4.5 Jun 05 $21 −$20 -99%
Azerbaijan vs. Malta: O/U 2.5 Jun 05 $16 −$16 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 6.5 BUY Over $50 25m
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 2.5 BUY Over 30¢ $51 27m
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs KOLESIE (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Closed BUY KOLESIE 36¢ $24 33m
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs KOLESIE (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Closed BUY KOLESIE 48¢ $25 34m
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs KOLESIE (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Closed BUY KOLESIE 57¢ $51 35m
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs KOLESIE (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Closed SELL ECHO 49¢ $48 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 29¢ $45 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 27¢ $46 1h
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs KOLESIE (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Closed BUY ECHO 44¢ $45 1h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 6.5 BUY Over $9 2h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 10¢ $4 2h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 23¢ $8 2h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $20 2h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner SELL BetBoom Team $42 3h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team $25 3h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team $25 3h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 20¢ $26 3h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 21¢ $27 4h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 51¢ $26 4h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 66¢ $76 4h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 42¢ $50 4h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 48¢ $25 4h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 6.5 BUY Over $10 6h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 5.5 BUY Over $8 6h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 11¢ $10 6h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 24¢ $20 6h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $51 6h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 5.5 BUY Over $10 41h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 6.5 BUY Over $7 45h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 SELL Over $7 45h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $278.79 · official $266.71 · 489 history records