Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T23:13:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
9E 0x9e3c…4bde sports 13 markets active 1h ago coverage 22d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
Total PnL +$26 (+25%) realized +$14 · open +$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate50%3W / 3L
Drawdown50%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$70now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$14
14 days+$14
30 days+$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 79% +$25
other 12% +$1
politics 9% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-18.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -15.4% -23.4% 40% 20% +31.9%
≤30d 6 -10.2% -18.7% 50% 33% +30.3%
≤90d 6 -10.2% -18.7% 50% 33% +30.3%
all 6 -10.2% -18.7% 50% 33% +30.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.7% 33% +30.3%
10% -26.5% 17% +17.9%
15% -33.6% 17% +6.5%
20% -40.1% 17% -4.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 98% · top 2 99% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +44% too few recent
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +44% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$2 · ×2.99 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.99 per $1 lost it wins $2.99
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$70
Realized+$14
Unrealized+$10
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses3 / 3
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions7
Markets (closed)6 / 13
History coverage22d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown50%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026? No 39¢ 76¢ $14 $27 +$13 (+91%)
Will the ECB announce no change at the July 2026 meeting? Yes 87¢ 94¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+9%)
Will annual inflation be 3.8% in June? Yes 37¢ 30¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-18%)
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 86¢ 74¢ $10 $8 −$1 (-15%)
Will annual inflation be 4.0% in June? No 84¢ 87¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+4%)
Will annual inflation be 3.9% in June? Yes 37¢ 35¢ $7 $6 −$0 (-5%)
Will annual inflation be 4.1% in June? No 92¢ 94¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Bank of Canada announce no change at the June meeting? Jun 10 $3 $0 -0%
Will annual inflation be 4.2% in May? Jun 10 $18 +$21 +118%
Will annual inflation be 4.3% in May? Jun 10 $6 −$6 -100%
Will annual inflation be 4.4% or more in May? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Will annual inflation be 4.1% in May? Jun 10 $3 $0 +4%
Will the US add between 100k and 150k jobs in May? Jun 05 $2 $0 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026? SELL No 66¢ $7 1h
Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026? SELL No 66¢ $1 1h
Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026? SELL No 65¢ $0 1h
Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026? SELL No 65¢ $0 1h
Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026? SELL No 64¢ $1 1h
Will annual inflation be 3.9% in June? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 3h
Will annual inflation be 3.8% in June? BUY Yes 37¢ $3 3h
Will annual inflation be 3.9% in June? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 10h
Will the ECB announce no change at the July 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 87¢ $8 11h
Will annual inflation be 3.9% in June? BUY Yes 33¢ $2 11h
Will annual inflation be 3.8% in June? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 16h
Will annual inflation be 3.8% in June? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 16h
Will annual inflation be 3.8% in June? BUY Yes 40¢ $2 34h
Will annual inflation be 3.8% in June? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 36h
Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026? SELL No 64¢ $0 41h
Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026? SELL No 64¢ $0 41h
Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026? SELL No 65¢ $6 41h
Will annual inflation be 3.8% in June? BUY Yes 33¢ $2 44h
Will annual inflation be 3.9% in June? BUY Yes 45¢ $1 2d
Will annual inflation be 3.9% in June? BUY Yes 43¢ $1 2d
Will annual inflation be 4.0% in June? BUY No 84¢ $7 2d
Will annual inflation be 4.1% in June? BUY No 92¢ $4 2d
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 86¢ $6 3d
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 86¢ $2 4d
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 86¢ $2 4d
Will annual inflation be 4.2% in May? BUY Yes 49¢ $1 4d
Will annual inflation be 4.2% in May? BUY Yes 50¢ $2 5d
Will annual inflation be 4.3% in May? BUY Yes 41¢ $5 5d
Will annual inflation be 4.2% in May? BUY Yes 49¢ $9 5d
Will annual inflation be 4.1% in May? BUY No 95¢ $3 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $69.65 · official $69.65 (match) · 48 history records