Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T04:14:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9E 0x9e40…fe2d politics 66 markets active 1h ago coverage 593d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$6,772 (-7%) realized −$6,968 · open +$196
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate80%48W / 12L
Whale WR73%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,420per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$11,368now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$91
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 41% +$350
finance 29% +$264
other 14% −$8,036
tech 9% +$329
world 3% +$141
crypto 2% +$77
sports 2% −$10
economics 0% +$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-16.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +25.8% +13.8% 100% 100% +13.8%
≤30d 4 -43.3% -48.7% 50% 25% -8.8%
≤90d 19 -27.2% -34.2% 68% 11% -18.4%
all 60 -7.3% -16.2% 80% 18% -17.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.2% 18% -17.5%
10% -24.2% 5% -25.4%
15% -31.5% 2% -32.6%
20% -38.2% 2% -39.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
77% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 73% (≥$1,998) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late -18% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
7.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$43 vs −$761 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.23 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

593d coverage
Net worth$11,368
Realized−$6,968
Unrealized+$196
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses48 / 12
Whale WR (big bets)73%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions6
Markets (closed)60 / 66
History coverage593d
Avg bet$1,420
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 60 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? No 97¢ 100¢ $8,346 $8,570 +$225 (+3%)
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $1,430 $1,432 +$2 (+0%)
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo Messi 92¢ 92¢ $673 $668 −$5 (-1%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 84¢ 80¢ $357 $340 −$17 (-5%)
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30? No 78¢ 76¢ $233 $230 −$3 (-2%)
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? No 67¢ 64¢ $134 $128 −$6 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $8 +$2 +26%
Roland Garros ATP: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Martin Landaluce May 30 $4 −$4 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? May 29 $11,164 +$98 +1%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 22 $5 −$5 -98%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Daniil Medvedev May 16 $27 +$3 +10%
Lakers vs. Rockets May 02 $705 +$19 +3%
Spread: Pistons (-4.5) May 02 $298 +$4 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April? May 02 $84 +$15 +18%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? May 02 $10,655 +$321 +3%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April? Apr 17 $124 −$121 -98%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of January? Apr 17 $2,897 −$2,897 -100%
BNP Paribas Open: Carlos Alcaraz vs Daniil Medvedev Apr 17 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of January? Apr 17 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Apr 02 $105 +$10 +10%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $65 by end of March? Apr 01 $126 +$5 +4%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $45 by end of March? Apr 01 $397 +$2 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of March? Apr 01 $371 +$9 +2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? Mar 27 $3,257 +$31 +1%
Will Trump visit China by March 31? Mar 27 $4,502 +$48 +1%
BNP Paribas Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Jannik Sinner Mar 17 $10 +$3 +28%
US forces enter Iran by March 14? Mar 15 $259 +$29 +11%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? Mar 14 $633 +$12 +2%
US forces enter Iran by March 7? Mar 08 $424 +$6 +1%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of January? Feb 18 $1,197 −$1,068 -89%
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by January 31, 2026? Feb 18 $321 +$26 +8%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 01 $717 +$10 +2%
Maduro out in 2025? Jan 01 $776 +$76 +10%
Will Trump recognize Somaliland in 2025? Jan 01 $3,811 −$3 -0%
Thailand x Cambodia ceasefire by December 15? Dec 16 $731 +$31 +4%
Will UP hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Dec 10 $186 +$1 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 10 $290 +$18 +6%
Will LLA hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Dec 10 $3,094 +$63 +2%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Dec 09 $1,005 +$22 +2%
Maduro out by November 30, 2025? Dec 01 $477 +$28 +6%
Will Elon Musk’s $1T Tesla pay deal pass? Nov 07 $93 +$7 +8%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports (BO5) Nov 03 $73 +$5 +6%
Will Sanae Takaichi be the next Prime Minister of Japan? Oct 23 $100 +$7 +7%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? Oct 16 $100 +$10 +10%
Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2025 US Open? Sep 15 $25 +$13 +54%
Will Trump release more Epstein files before August? Aug 19 $82 +$7 +9%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15? Jul 23 $112 +$16 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down on July 20? Jul 23 $46 +$1 +1%
Will Jack Draper win the 2025 French Open? Jul 09 $110 +$2 +2%
Liverpool wins the Premier League? May 25 $50 +$2 +4%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? May 25 $47 +$10 +22%
Will Elon tweet 350-374 times Jan 17-24? Jan 24 $855 −$260 -30%
Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24? Jan 24 $3,596 −$3,241 -90%
Will Elon tweet 300-324 times Jan 17-24? Jan 24 $2,319 +$270 +12%
Ethereum all time high by January 31? Jan 24 $794 +$12 +2%
Will TikTok be on the App Store by Friday? Jan 24 $2,016 +$26 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $99 49m
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo BUY Messi 92¢ $28 1h
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo BUY Messi 92¢ $92 1h
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo BUY Messi 92¢ $184 1h
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo BUY Messi 92¢ $184 1h
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $99 1h
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $792 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $1,976 1h
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $99 11h
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30? BUY No 77¢ $52 11h
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? BUY No 67¢ $23 11h
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? BUY No 67¢ $2 11h
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? BUY No 67¢ $2 11h
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? BUY No 67¢ $2 11h
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? BUY No 67¢ $2 11h
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? BUY No 67¢ $2 11h
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? BUY No 67¢ $2 11h
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? BUY No 67¢ $2 11h
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? BUY No 67¢ $2 11h
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? BUY No 67¢ $2 11h
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? BUY No 67¢ $2 11h
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? BUY No 67¢ $2 11h
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? BUY No 67¢ $2 11h
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? BUY No 67¢ $2 11h
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? BUY No 67¢ $2 11h
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? BUY No 67¢ $2 11h
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? BUY No 67¢ $2 11h
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? BUY No 67¢ $2 11h
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? BUY No 67¢ $2 11h
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? BUY No 67¢ $2 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11,368.13 · official $11,368.13 (match) · 655 history records