Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:20:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9E 0x9e41…df49 other 20 markets active 1h ago coverage 228d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$832 (-49%) realized −$828 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate42%8W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$84per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit35%portable
Net worth$56now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$49
7 days−$659
14 days−$707
30 days−$707
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 74% −$429
crypto 21% −$251
sports 5% −$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-27.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -16.2% -24.2% 40% 27% -48.4%
≤30d 17 -26.1% -33.1% 35% 24% -49.9%
≤90d 17 -26.1% -33.1% 35% 24% -49.9%
all 19 -20.3% -27.9% 42% 32% -48.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.9% 32% -48.5%
10% -34.8% 32% -53.5%
15% -41.1% 16% -58.0%
20% -46.8% 11% -62.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 76% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -45% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -43% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -37% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$85 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.26 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

228d coverage
Net worth$56
Realized−$828
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses8 / 11
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)19 / 20
History coverage228d
Avg bet$84
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit35%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 61¢ 56¢ $60 $56 −$4 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $102 +$142 +139%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 17 $30 −$1 -2%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Jun 17 $42 +$4 +8%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 17 $67 +$6 +10%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $288 −$228 -79%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 −$4 -4%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $151 +$41 +27%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $69 +$31 +46%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $36 −$36 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $108 −$92 -85%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 $0 -1%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $8 +$8 +98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $245 −$241 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $254 −$250 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 07 $38 −$38 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 07 $10 −$10 -98%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 09 $20 +$5 +25%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports (BO5) Nov 02 $15 +$5 +33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $244 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $13 7h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $7 7h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $20 7h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $102 7h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 61¢ $30 7h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 74¢ $46 7h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 64¢ $73 7h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 12¢ $23 7h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 21¢ $37 7h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $188 18h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 56¢ $97 18h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $101 18h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $100 24h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $16 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 10¢ $16 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 65¢ $7 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 65¢ $101 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 33¢ $16 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $8 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $245 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $254 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 67¢ $42 10d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 61¢ $30 10d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 57¢ $67 10d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 61¢ $61 10d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 78¢ $101 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $55.84 · official $55.85 (match) · 41 history records