Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T23:10:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

9E
0x9e45…3662
politics · 779 markets active 1h ago
2.0score
+$8,822 +6%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$7,344 · open +$1,350
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$13,138
Realized+$7,344
Unrealized+$1,350
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses576 / 139
Whale WR (big bets)82%
Est. fees paid−$68
Open positions65
Markets (closed)715 / 779
History coverage90d
Avg bet$191
Trades / day33.1
Drawdown33%
Kalshi-fit89%
Chart Positions 65 History 715 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,011
7 days−$3,627
14 days−$2,773
30 days+$192
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 76¢ 76¢ $731 $736 +$5 (+1%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? No 87¢ 82¢ $734 $692 −$42 (-6%)
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,700 (HIGH) in June? No 44¢ 82¢ $364 $676 +$312 (+86%)
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? No 84¢ 85¢ $496 $501 +$5 (+1%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? No 46¢ 42¢ $502 $451 −$51 (-10%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 14, 2026? No 99¢ 97¢ $455 $449 −$6 (-1%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? No 81¢ 82¢ $440 $448 +$8 (+2%)
Nothing Ever Happens: June Nothing 89¢ 92¢ $400 $416 +$16 (+4%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 13, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $400 $401 +$1 (+0%)
Will Kristi Noem leave the Trump administration before 2027? No 44¢ 62¢ $260 $366 +$106 (+41%)
Iran leadership change by June 30? No 84¢ 97¢ $307 $355 +$49 (+16%)
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,850 (HIGH) in June? No 80¢ 94¢ $296 $348 +$51 (+17%)
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $240 in June? No 58¢ 92¢ $215 $343 +$128 (+59%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 74¢ 90¢ $283 $340 +$57 (+20%)
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? No 35¢ 72¢ $163 $335 +$173 (+106%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? No 97¢ 100¢ $306 $316 +$9 (+3%)
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? No 19¢ 20¢ $300 $308 +$8 (+3%)
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $264 in June? No 92¢ 99¢ $284 $306 +$22 (+8%)
Kash Patel out by June 30? No 42¢ 92¢ $131 $290 +$159 (+122%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? No 88¢ 98¢ $250 $277 +$27 (+11%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 77¢ 99¢ $206 $264 +$59 (+29%)
Iran leadership change by December 31? No 46¢ 80¢ $150 $259 +$109 (+72%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Pope Leo XIV by June 30, 2026? No 93¢ 93¢ $255 $256 +$1 (+0%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? No 93¢ 98¢ $225 $237 +$12 (+6%)
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,800 (HIGH) in December? No 26¢ 34¢ $173 $225 +$52 (+30%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? Jun 13 $696 −$657 -94%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $100 +$1 +2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $18 +$2 +8%
Will SpaceX's market cap be at least $3.5T at market close on IPO day? Jun 12 $220 +$5 +2%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $3.0T and $3.5T at market close on Jun 12 $190 +$5 +3%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 12 $100 +$6 +6%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $85 on June 12? Jun 12 $59 −$21 -35%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $84 on June 12? Jun 12 $193 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $102 −$102 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? Jun 12 $18 −$9 -51%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? Jun 12 $422 −$141 -33%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 12 $120 −$100 -83%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 10, 2026? Jun 11 $100 +$1 +1%
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 300M by June 5? Jun 10 $100 +$1 +1%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 10 $150 −$150 -100%
Will Trump announce a Taiwan arms sales halt? Jun 10 $189 −$189 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 23, 2026? Jun 10 $31 −$31 -100%
Aliens.gov confirmed immigration website? Jun 10 $190 −$190 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 30, 2026? Jun 10 $29 −$29 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? Jun 10 $400 −$400 -100%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $750 in May? Jun 10 $174 −$174 -100%
Tulsi Gabbard out by June 30? Jun 10 $449 −$449 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May? Jun 10 $347 −$347 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $90 by end of June? Jun 10 $125 −$125 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in May? Jun 10 $277 −$277 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Jun 09 $297 +$3 +1%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 09 $351 +$8 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $300 +$20 +7%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $100 +$2 +2%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $15 $0 +3%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $137 +$130 +95%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 (BO5) - Esports World Cup Korea Qualifier Playoff Jun 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $90 in May? Jun 07 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $3 −$3 -100%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 15? Jun 07 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 3, 2026? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in June? Jun 07 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $30 −$30 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 Week of May 18 2026? Jun 07 $67 −$67 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26? Jun 07 $100 −$100 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Jun 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Gemini 3.5 released by May 31? Jun 07 $206 −$126 -62%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,600 (HIGH) in June? Jun 07 $42 −$42 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $300 +$1 +0%
Will Mirra Andreeva win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 06 $172 +$15 +9%
Will Maja Chwalińska win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 06 $20 +$6 +27%
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 5? Jun 06 $35 +$16 +46%
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 on June 5? Jun 06 $25 +$1 +4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 5? Jun 06 $76 +$9 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 41% +$6,471
finance 17% −$412
sports 12% −$30
other 11% +$701
politics 11% +$555
crypto 5% +$396
tech 3% +$1,007
economics 0% +$5
culture 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 95¢ $59 50m
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Alex Jones by June 30, 2026? BUY No 77¢ $14 51m
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Pope Leo XIV by June 30, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $100 51m
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $256 in June? SELL No 98¢ $174 51m
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Pope Leo XIV by June 30, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $155 51m
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Pam Bondi by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $100 52m
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by June 30, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $10 52m
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Alex Jones by June 30, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $16 53m
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Megyn Kelly by June 30, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $6 53m
Will Solana dip to $40 in June? SELL No 99¢ $96 53m
Will Solana dip to $40 in June? SELL No 99¢ $192 54m
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 14, 2026? BUY No 12¢ $2 55m
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 14, 2026? BUY No 12¢ $7 55m
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 13, 2026? BUY No 33¢ $10 55m
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 13, 2026? BUY No 31¢ $10 56m
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 14, 2026? BUY No 11¢ $11 56m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 75¢ $38 56m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 76¢ $90 3h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL No 79¢ $93 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 76¢ $259 3h
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? SELL No 59¢ $255 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 76¢ $200 3h
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 76¢ $197 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 76¢ $220 3h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? SELL No 82¢ $228 3h
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by June 30? BUY No 84¢ $96 5h
Nothing Ever Happens: June BUY Nothing 93¢ $200 5h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? SELL No 80¢ $296 5h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 14, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $55 6h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 14, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $200 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-4.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 -59.7% -63.5% 32% 2% -60.0%
≤30d 207 -1.0% -10.5% 74% 23% -9.2%
≤90d 714 +6.0% -4.1% 81% 21% -4.5%
all 715 +5.9% -4.1% 81% 21% -4.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover33.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.1% 21% -4.5%
10% ← realistic here -13.3% 9% -13.6%
15% -21.7% 6% -22.0%
20% -29.4% 4% -29.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13,137.97 · official $13,138.05 (match) · 3500 history records