Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T05:16:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
9E 0x9e48…16b2 other 54 markets active 1h ago coverage 137d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1,213 (-4%) realized −$1,213 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate54%29W / 25L
Whale WR86%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$527per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit11%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$627
7 days+$1,557
14 days−$70
30 days−$70
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 64% −$596
sports 34% +$88
politics 1% $0
world 0% +$116
crypto 0% −$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-26.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +105.2% +85.6% 88% 75% +0.3%
≤30d 31 -25.6% -32.7% 32% 29% -9.9%
≤90d 31 -25.6% -32.7% 32% 29% -9.9%
all 54 -18.4% -26.2% 54% 19% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.2% 19% -11.1%
10% -33.3% 15% -19.6%
15% -39.7% 15% -27.4%
20% -45.6% 13% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
66% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 86% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -22% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$82 vs −$114 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

137d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,213
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses29 / 25
Whale WR (big bets)86%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)54 / 54
History coverage137d
Avg bet$527
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit11%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 54 Trades
no open positions (22 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $9,212 +$178 +2%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $4,465 +$535 +12%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $103 −$86 -84%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $102 +$192 +188%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $102 +$221 +216%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $101 +$87 +86%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $102 +$116 +114%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $102 +$314 +307%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $102 +$116 +114%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $102 +$210 +206%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $101 +$46 +46%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 15 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 15 $103 −$100 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 15 $103 −$100 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Will The Killers perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? Feb 09 $68 +$1 +1%
Will Miley Cyrus perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? Feb 09 $100 +$2 +2%
Will Justin Bieber perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? Feb 09 $100 +$2 +2%
Will Gracie Abrams perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? Feb 09 $100 +$3 +3%
Will Drake perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? Feb 09 $100 +$6 +6%
Will Santana perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? Feb 09 $200 +$10 +5%
Will Rosalia perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? Feb 09 $400 +$13 +3%
Will Foo Fighters perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? Feb 09 $500 +$10 +2%
Will Jay-Z perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? Feb 09 $500 +$20 +4%
Will Karol G perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? Feb 09 $1,567 −$512 -33%
Will Dua Lipa perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? Feb 09 $1,000 +$57 +6%
Will Taylor Swift perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? Feb 09 $3,834 +$125 +3%
Will Cardi B perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? Feb 09 $500 −$197 -40%
Will Elon Musk perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? Feb 09 $27 $0 +0%
Will Green Day perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? Feb 09 $100 +$2 +2%
Will Harry Styles perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? Feb 09 $100 +$2 +2%
Will Post Malone perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? Feb 09 $100 +$19 +19%
Will Joe Biden perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? Feb 09 $196 $0 +0%
Will Adele perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? Feb 09 $500 +$9 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $9,390 1h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 98¢ $8,869 1h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 98¢ $343 1h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 89¢ $4,465 6h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? SELL No 2¢ $16 31h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 21¢ $102 8d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 35¢ $102 8d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 55¢ $101 8d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 12¢ $103 8d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 43¢ $102 8d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 34¢ $102 8d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 31¢ $102 8d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 11¢ $103 8d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 36¢ $102 8d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 37¢ $102 8d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 43¢ $102 8d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 53¢ $101 8d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 12¢ $103 8d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 39¢ $102 8d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 52¢ $101 8d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 24¢ $102 8d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 38¢ $102 8d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 46¢ $102 8d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 29¢ $102 8d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 57¢ $101 8d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 44¢ $102 8d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 24¢ $102 8d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 28¢ $102 8d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 30¢ $102 8d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $103 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 97 history records