Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T08:28:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
9E 0x9e48…6158 sports 244 markets active 0h ago coverage 72d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2,932 (+4%) realized +$3,214 · open −$282
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate59%142W / 100L
Whale WR82%big bets
Drawdown80%max
Avg bet$335per market
Trades / day5.6pace
Fees−$725est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$210now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$965
7 days−$1,173
14 days+$753
30 days+$1,049
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% +$884
other 3% −$277
world 1% +$980
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +10.7% +0.1% 58% 58% -22.5%
≤30d 101 +12.1% +1.4% 59% 59% -6.5%
≤90d 242 +1.0% -8.6% 59% 55% -7.4%
all 242 +1.0% -8.6% 59% 55% -7.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.6% 55% -7.4%
10% -17.3% 48% -16.3%
15% -25.3% 41% -24.4%
20% -32.7% 30% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 82% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -7% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$165 vs −$216 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$210
Realized+$3,214
Unrealized−$282
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses142 / 100
Whale WR (big bets)82%
Est. fees paid−$725
Open positions2
Markets (closed)242 / 244
History coverage72d
Avg bet$335
Trades / day5.6
Drawdown80%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 242 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: PCIFIC vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - LG UltraGear Tournament Playoffs PCIFIC 37¢ 36¢ $212 $210 −$3 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: The Huns Esports vs CYBERSHOKE Prospects (BO3) - LG UltraGear Tournament Playoffs The Huns Esports 57¢ 0¢ $279 $0 −$279 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 52 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super Dra Jun 25 $298 −$293 -98%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs 9INE (BO3) - Super DraculaN Gr Jun 25 $433 +$246 +57%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs FOKUS (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group B Jun 25 $304 +$217 +71%
Counter-Strike: Team Novaq vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - LG UltraGear Tournam Jun 25 $493 −$493 -100%
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs OG (BO3) - Super DraculaN Gr Jun 24 $304 −$300 -99%
Counter-Strike: 9INE vs GamerLegion (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A Jun 24 $584 −$581 -100%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN Jun 24 $303 +$282 +93%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Acend (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A Jun 24 $213 −$210 -98%
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs Walczaki (BO3) - Super Dr Jun 24 $349 +$168 +48%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE (BO3) - DraculaN Group A Jun 23 $101 +$87 +86%
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs Betclic Apogee Esports (BO3) - DraculaN Group Jun 23 $319 +$206 +65%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Esport Academy Copenhagen (BO3) - DraculaN Jun 23 $101 +$218 +216%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs AM Gaming (BO3) - DraculaN Gro Jun 23 $95 −$93 -98%
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs ReThink (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group A Jun 22 $177 +$223 +126%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $271 +$129 +48%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE (BO5) - European Pro League Series Jun 22 $341 +$208 +61%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $275 +$461 +167%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner Jun 21 $301 −$296 -99%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $539 −$530 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $494 +$320 +65%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $1,010 −$997 -99%
Counter-Strike: WW Team vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Epi Jun 19 $215 +$185 +86%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $494 −$490 -99%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode Jun 19 $239 +$161 +67%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $507 +$173 +34%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $201 −$198 -98%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $101 +$199 +197%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl Jun 17 $251 +$249 +99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $100 −$98 -98%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof Jun 16 $287 −$283 -99%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $99 +$171 +172%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $150 +$185 +124%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $151 +$219 +146%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $82 +$185 +226%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $202 +$173 +86%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $201 +$239 +119%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1,000 +$120 +12%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $1,005 +$275 +27%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $344 +$136 +40%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $299 −$295 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $1,004 +$158 +16%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $106 +$209 +197%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $322 +$208 +65%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $155 +$245 +158%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $1,013 +$507 +50%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $426 −$418 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $508 −$500 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $101 −$99 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 10 $504 −$497 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: PCIFIC vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - LG UltraGear Tournament BUY PCIFIC 37¢ $216 16m
Counter-Strike: The Huns Esports vs CYBERSHOKE Prospects (BO3) - LG Ul BUY The Huns Esports 57¢ $283 2h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super Dra BUY Sashi Esport 40¢ $298 14h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs 9INE (BO3) - Super DraculaN Gr SELL Inner Circle Esports 100¢ $679 15h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs 9INE (BO3) - Super DraculaN Gr BUY Inner Circle Esports 63¢ $369 21h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs 9INE (BO3) - Super DraculaN Gr BUY Inner Circle Esports 63¢ $64 21h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs FOKUS (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group B BUY Infinite 58¢ $304 22h
Counter-Strike: Team Novaq vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - LG UltraGear Tournam BUY Rune Eaters 62¢ $138 27h
Counter-Strike: Team Novaq vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - LG UltraGear Tournam BUY Rune Eaters 62¢ $161 27h
Counter-Strike: Team Novaq vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - LG UltraGear Tournam BUY Rune Eaters 62¢ $194 27h
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs OG (BO3) - Super DraculaN Gr BUY OG 56¢ $304 35h
Counter-Strike: 9INE vs GamerLegion (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A BUY GamerLegion 79¢ $68 38h
Counter-Strike: 9INE vs GamerLegion (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A BUY GamerLegion 79¢ $15 38h
Counter-Strike: 9INE vs GamerLegion (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A BUY GamerLegion 79¢ $501 38h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN SELL Sharks 100¢ $585 38h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN BUY Sharks 51¢ $303 42h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Acend (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A BUY Sashi Esport 50¢ $213 44h
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs Walczaki (BO3) - Super Dr SELL Walczaki 100¢ $516 44h
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs Walczaki (BO3) - Super Dr BUY Walczaki 67¢ $349 47h
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs Betclic Apogee Esports (BO3) - DraculaN Group BUY ECHO 60¢ $76 2d
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs Betclic Apogee Esports (BO3) - DraculaN Group BUY ECHO 60¢ $243 2d
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Esport Academy Copenhagen (BO3) - DraculaN SELL Esport Academy Copenhagen 100¢ $320 2d
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE (BO3) - DraculaN Group A BUY Sashi Esport 53¢ $101 2d
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs AM Gaming (BO3) - DraculaN Gro BUY AM Gaming 30¢ $95 3d
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Esport Academy Copenhagen (BO3) - DraculaN BUY Esport Academy Copenhagen 31¢ $101 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $271 3d
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs ReThink (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group A BUY ReThink 44¢ $82 3d
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs ReThink (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group A BUY ReThink 44¢ $3 3d
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs ReThink (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group A BUY ReThink 44¢ $11 3d
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs ReThink (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group A BUY ReThink 44¢ $16 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $209.81 · official $209.81 (match) · 520 history records