Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T09:50:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

9E
0x9e49…d3d8
crypto · 78 markets active 4h ago
1.5score
+$740 +2%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$420 · open +$70
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1,486
Realized+$420
Unrealized+$70
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses22 / 52
Whale WR (big bets)35%
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions4
Markets (closed)74 / 78
History coverage17d
Avg bet$511
Trades / day30.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%
Chart Positions 4 History 74 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,304
7 days+$2,304
14 days−$60
30 days+$420
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch? Yes 62¢ 65¢ $1,219 $1,272 +$52 (+4%)
Predict.fun FDV above $2B one day after launch? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $175 $182 +$7 (+4%)
Predict.fun FDV above $1B one day after launch? Yes 19¢ 26¢ $14 $20 +$6 (+40%)
Predict.fun FDV above $1.5B one day after launch? Yes 8¢ 14¢ $7 $13 +$6 (+75%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Up 28¢ 0¢ $42 $0 −$42 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9AM ET Up 26¢ 0¢ $146 $0 −$146 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 12AM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Up 32¢ 0¢ $144 $0 −$144 (-100%)
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Yes 30¢ 0¢ $1,038 $0 −$1,038 (-100%)
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Anyones Legend 24¢ 0¢ $355 $0 −$355 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 8AM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7AM ET Up 30¢ 0¢ $77 $0 −$77 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 7AM ET Up 26¢ 0¢ $236 $0 −$236 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 9AM ET Up 2¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1AM ET Jun 14 $344 +$556 +162%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 14 $39 +$861 +2230%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 14 $151 +$299 +199%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9PM ET Jun 14 $56 +$394 +708%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 14 $71 +$379 +530%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 14 $151 −$144 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 14 $42 −$42 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $3,927 −$1,092 -28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 11AM ET Jun 01 $3 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11AM ET Jun 01 $170 −$98 -57%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 10AM ET Jun 01 $107 +$38 +36%
Anthropic IPO before 2027? Jun 01 $587 +$30 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10AM ET Jun 01 $519 −$266 -51%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 6AM ET Jun 01 $46 −$40 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5AM ET Jun 01 $514 −$36 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9AM ET Jun 01 $204 −$133 -65%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 9AM ET Jun 01 $21 +$3 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 4AM ET Jun 01 $6 +$7 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8AM ET Jun 01 $353 −$9 -3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 3AM ET Jun 01 $332 −$15 -5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 1AM ET Jun 01 $400 −$1 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1AM ET Jun 01 $400 −$5 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7AM ET Jun 01 $168 −$59 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11PM ET Jun 01 $800 +$93 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 7AM ET Jun 01 $248 −$236 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6AM ET Jun 01 $718 −$9 -1%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 01 $361 −$355 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4AM ET Jun 01 $219 −$127 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3AM ET Jun 01 $73 −$35 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2AM ET Jun 01 $7 $0 -6%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 11PM ET Jun 01 $800 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12AM ET Jun 01 $400 −$2 -0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 12AM ET Jun 01 $400 −$17 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10PM ET Jun 01 $1,200 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8PM ET May 31 $2,400 +$693 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9PM ET May 31 $400 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7PM ET May 31 $1,200 +$557 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6PM ET May 30 $400 −$19 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5PM ET May 30 $800 −$123 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4PM ET May 30 $400 −$20 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3PM ET May 30 $400 −$43 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2PM ET May 30 $800 −$192 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1PM ET May 30 $400 +$72 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12PM ET May 30 $400 +$95 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11AM ET May 30 $800 −$226 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10AM ET May 30 $400 −$17 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9AM ET May 30 $800 −$121 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8AM ET May 30 $1,600 +$38 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7AM ET May 30 $800 −$54 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6AM ET May 30 $400 +$5 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 91% +$711
other 5% +$100
sports 4% −$321
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $117 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $115 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $112 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $13 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $13 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $13 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $51 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $50 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $49 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $25 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $24 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $23 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $20 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $18 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $18 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $49 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $54 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $48 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $42 8h
Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch? BUY Yes 63¢ $404 11d
Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch? BUY Yes 62¢ $847 11d
Predict.fun FDV above $1.5B one day after launch? BUY Yes 8¢ $8 11d
Predict.fun FDV above $2B one day after launch? BUY Yes 7¢ $186 11d
Predict.fun FDV above $1B one day after launch? BUY Yes 19¢ $15 11d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $12 12d
Anthropic IPO before 2027? SELL Yes 90¢ $617 12d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 58¢ $576 12d
Anthropic IPO before 2027? BUY Yes 85¢ $587 12d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 57¢ $584 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)+22.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +485.6% +429.8% 71% 71% +227.3%
≤30d 74 +35.5% +22.6% 30% 20% -8.5%
≤90d 74 +35.5% +22.6% 30% 20% -8.5%
all 74 +35.5% +22.6% 30% 20% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover30.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +22.6% 20% -8.5%
10% ← realistic here +10.9% 16% -17.3%
15% +0.2% 12% -25.3%
20% -9.7% 8% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,485.83 · official $1,485.83 (match) · 719 history records