Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T14:37:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
9E 0x9e4a…c559 politics 16 markets active 1h ago coverage 105d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$101per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 24% $0
sports 18% −$2
crypto 18% $0
other 17% $0
economics 12% $0
world 6% $0
tech 6% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 12 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.7%
all 16 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$0 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

105d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 16
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)16 / 16
History coverage105d
Avg bet$101
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 16 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $92 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Jun 24 $93 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $93 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 28 $93 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $188 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 18 $95 −$2 -2%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 14 $95 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in May? May 09 $95 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 18 $96 $0 -0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $96 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 09 $96 $0 +0%
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 05 $96 $0 +0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 28 $96 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 19 $96 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Mar 17 $96 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 13 $96 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $92 1h
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $92 13h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $92 46h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $93 2d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $93 22d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $93 23d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 99¢ $93 29d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 99¢ $93 30d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $93 35d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $93 35d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 96¢ $93 39d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $95 39d
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 99¢ $95 42d
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $95 43d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $95 43d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $95 44d
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $95 47d
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $95 48d
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? SELL No 99¢ $96 69d
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? BUY No 99¢ $96 69d
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $96 74d
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $96 74d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on April SELL No 100¢ $96 78d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on April BUY No 100¢ $96 79d
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 99¢ $96 82d
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 99¢ $85 83d
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 99¢ $11 83d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $96 90d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $96 90d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $96 99d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 43 history records