Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:34:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
9E 0x9e4c…0f6c other 38 markets active 2h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$229 (+11%) realized +$229 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate51%19W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day5.7pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$26
7 days+$181
14 days+$200
30 days+$200
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 84% +$383
world 7% −$129
crypto 5% −$37
sports 4% −$9
tech 1% −$10
weather 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -5.3% -14.3% 52% 48% +5.2%
≤30d 37 -1.1% -10.5% 51% 46% +4.9%
≤90d 37 -1.1% -10.5% 51% 46% +4.9%
all 37 -1.1% -10.5% 51% 46% +4.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 46% +4.9%
10% -19.1% 46% -5.1%
15% -26.9% 41% -14.3%
20% -34.0% 24% -22.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 51% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +12% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$24 · ×1.39 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.47 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized+$229
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses19 / 18
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)37 / 38
History coverage12d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day5.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $20 −$13 -62%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $190 +$68 +36%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 −$1 -10%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $31 +$21 +69%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $12 +$13 +109%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $12 +$4 +31%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $4 −$3 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $18 +$10 +57%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $13 +$5 +40%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $17 +$9 +52%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $15 +$8 +50%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $50 +$23 +46%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $52 +$13 +24%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $428 +$204 +48%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $131 −$129 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $285 −$110 -39%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $128 +$116 +90%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$1 -8%
Sweden to score first vs. Tunisia? Jun 14 $5 $0 -4%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $55 −$55 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $150 +$8 +6%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $96 +$55 +57%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $30 +$32 +105%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $5 +$13 +250%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$6 -62%
Will OpenAI IPO by August 31 2026? Jun 12 $5 −$3 -58%
Will OpenAI IPO by September 30 2026? Jun 12 $10 −$7 -70%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 12 $5 $0 +3%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $55 +$23 +42%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 10? Jun 11 $3 +$3 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $40 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 12¢ $8 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 30¢ $20 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $9 8h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 19¢ $9 8h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 8h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $42 8h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $52 8h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $31 20h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 20h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 64¢ $41 20h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $31 28h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 31h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 76¢ $12 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $12 2d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $4 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $28 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $18 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $13 3d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $5 3d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 78¢ $23 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 51¢ $15 3d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 35¢ $25 3d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $12 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 63¢ $12 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $138 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $52 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.29 · official $40.29 (match) · 79 history records