Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T07:20:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
9E 0x9e50…0d32 sports 108 markets active 2h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$361 (+6%) realized +$402 · open −$41
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate33%30W / 62L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$58per market
Trades / day25.8pace
Fees−$72est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$773now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$799
7 days+$513
14 days+$570
30 days+$570
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 59% +$369
other 40% +$230
crypto 1% −$70
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)+8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 82 +2.7% -7.0% 32% 30% -0.1%
≤30d 92 +19.9% +8.5% 33% 32% -0.0%
≤90d 92 +19.9% +8.5% 33% 32% -0.0%
all 92 +19.9% +8.5% 33% 32% -0.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +8.5% 32% -0.0%
10% ← realistic here -1.9% 32% -9.6%
15% -11.4% 32% -18.3%
20% -20.1% 30% -26.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +60% → late -21% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$122 vs −$50 · ×2.45 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$773
Realized+$402
Unrealized−$41
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses30 / 62
Est. fees paid−$72
Open positions14
Markets (closed)92 / 108
History coverage12d
Avg bet$58
Trades / day25.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 92 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $188 $146 −$42 (-22%)
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Spain 48¢ 54¢ $96 $107 +$11 (+11%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 62¢ 64¢ $93 $95 +$2 (+2%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 66¢ 64¢ $66 $64 −$2 (-2%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Yes 31¢ 30¢ $62 $61 −$1 (-2%)
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Argentina 36¢ 38¢ $54 $56 +$2 (+4%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $70 $55 −$15 (-21%)
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Under 48¢ 48¢ $48 $48 −$0 (-1%)
England vs. Ghana: Ghana O/U 0.5 Over 45¢ 42¢ $45 $42 −$3 (-7%)
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) Egypt 32¢ 34¢ $32 $34 +$2 (+5%)
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Cabo Verde 63¢ 62¢ $23 $23 −$0 (-1%)
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Over 23¢ 30¢ $16 $20 +$4 (+28%)
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Croatia 35¢ 38¢ $12 $13 +$1 (+7%)
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Colombia 37¢ 36¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 37 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $152 +$248 +163%
Spread: Japan (-2.5) Jun 21 $47 +$184 +389%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $50 +$450 +900%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $62 +$38 +61%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $178 −$178 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $75 −$75 -100%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $44 −$44 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $85 −$85 -100%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $49 +$51 +104%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 20 $57 −$57 -100%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $72 −$72 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $112 +$88 +78%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $173 +$252 +146%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 19 $81 $0 +0%
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) Jun 19 $42 −$42 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $129 −$129 -100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $24 −$24 -100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $108 +$92 +85%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 18 $103 −$103 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $45 −$45 -100%
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $48 −$48 -100%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 18 $72 −$72 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $132 −$132 -100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $34 −$34 -100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $70 −$70 -100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $44 −$44 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 18 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 18 $70 −$70 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 18 $27 −$27 -100%
Spread: Scotland (-2.5) Jun 18 $35 −$35 -100%
Spread: Colombia (-2.5) Jun 18 $44 −$44 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $26 −$26 -100%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 18 $62 −$62 -100%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 18 $26 −$26 -100%
Spread: Portugal (-3.5) Jun 18 $35 −$35 -100%
Spread: Ghana (-2.5) Jun 18 $32 −$32 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Mexico O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $30 −$30 -100%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $68 +$82 +120%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $49 +$51 +104%
Czechia vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $60 −$60 -100%
Spread: Czechia (-2.5) Jun 18 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $104 +$146 +140%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $31 −$31 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $316 +$192 +61%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $41 −$41 -100%
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $63 −$63 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $28 −$27 -98%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 17 $57 −$57 -100%
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Japan (-1.5) SELL Japan 100¢ $400 1h
Spread: Japan (-2.5) SELL Japan 88¢ $231 1h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 38¢ $23 3h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 38¢ $60 3h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 38¢ $35 3h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 38¢ $3 3h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 38¢ $31 3h
Spread: Japan (-2.5) BUY Japan 18¢ $1 5h
Spread: Japan (-2.5) BUY Japan 18¢ $0 5h
Spread: Japan (-2.5) BUY Japan 18¢ $14 5h
Spread: Japan (-2.5) BUY Japan 18¢ $0 5h
Spread: Japan (-2.5) BUY Japan 18¢ $13 5h
Spread: Japan (-2.5) BUY Japan 18¢ $0 5h
Spread: Japan (-2.5) BUY Japan 18¢ $1 5h
Spread: Japan (-2.5) BUY Japan 18¢ $4 5h
Spread: Japan (-2.5) BUY Japan 18¢ $0 5h
Spread: Japan (-2.5) BUY Japan 18¢ $0 5h
Spread: Japan (-2.5) BUY Japan 18¢ $1 5h
Spread: Japan (-2.5) BUY Japan 18¢ $0 5h
Spread: Japan (-2.5) BUY Japan 18¢ $2 5h
Spread: Japan (-2.5) BUY Japan 18¢ $7 5h
Spread: Japan (-2.5) BUY Japan 18¢ $5 5h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $50 7h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 32¢ $70 13h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 14¢ $27 13h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 1.5 BUY Over 22¢ $44 13h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 8¢ $24 14h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 19¢ $61 14h
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) BUY Türkiye 23¢ $7 28h
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) BUY Türkiye 23¢ $1 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $773.33 · official $773.33 (match) · 390 history records