Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:17:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9E 0x9e51…4f13 crypto 110 markets active 21h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate43%47W / 63L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day42.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-18.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 110 -9.9% -18.5% 43% 34% -18.2%
≤30d 110 -9.9% -18.5% 43% 34% -18.2%
≤90d 110 -9.9% -18.5% 43% 34% -18.2%
all 110 -9.9% -18.5% 43% 34% -18.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover42.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.5% 34% -18.2%
10% ← realistic here -26.3% 28% -26.0%
15% -33.4% 25% -33.1%
20% -40.0% 22% -39.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 42% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses47 / 63
Open positions0
Markets (closed)110 / 110
History coverage4d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day42.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 110 Trades
no open positions (28 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$4 +425%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +120%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$3 +240%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$2 +208%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$2 +224%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET SELL Up 44¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET SELL Up 17¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET SELL Up 15¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 258 history records