Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T17:12:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9E 0x9e53…0c6b world 33 markets active 2h ago coverage 469d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$5 (-1%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate44%14W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 60% −$4
other 22% −$1
politics 6% +$1
finance 5% $0
sports 4% $0
tech 2% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.3% -9.3% 50% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 12 -1.6% -10.9% 17% 0% -11.1%
≤90d 17 +1.0% -8.6% 18% 6% -10.3%
all 32 -1.7% -11.1% 44% 3% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 3% -10.2%
10% -19.6% 3% -18.8%
15% -27.4% 3% -26.7%
20% -34.5% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 75% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

469d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses14 / 18
Open positions1
Markets (closed)32 / 33
History coverage469d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? No 96¢ 98¢ $31 $31 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $8 $0 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $28 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $29 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 17 $28 $0 +2%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 27 $31 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 26 $54 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 26 $45 −$1 -3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 25 $85 −$3 -3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 25 $21 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 24 $31 $0 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 24 $64 −$3 -4%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 24 $9 −$1 -9%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 21 $8 +$3 +36%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 21 $11 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 20 $33 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 20 $13 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 19 $35 $0 -0%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 14 $2 $0 +3%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jun 28 $10 $0 -1%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2025 French Open? Jun 07 $2 $0 +4%
Will Krishna Mathoera be the next president of Suriname after the elec Jun 06 $10 $0 +0%
Will Hong Joon-pyo be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 05 $9 +$1 +5%
Will Mario Grech be the next pope? May 10 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 06 $1 $0 +2%
Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by 9-12%? Apr 17 $9 $0 +1%
TikTok sale announced before April? Mar 29 $12 $0 +1%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 27 $12 $0 +0%
Trump meets with Carney in March? Mar 24 $13 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet less than 300 times March 21-28? Mar 22 $2 −$2 -90%
Arsenal wins the Premier League? Mar 21 $14 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? Mar 17 $13 $0 +1%
Will the New Jersey Devils win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 09 $14 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $31 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $8 24h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 26h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 26h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $10 46h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $19 46h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $28 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $2 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $8 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $19 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $26 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $3 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 66¢ $19 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 66¢ $9 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 65¢ $28 3d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 98¢ $31 24d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY No 99¢ $31 24d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $30 24d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $31 24d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $24 25d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $24 25d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 33¢ $11 25d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 36¢ $12 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 66¢ $16 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 66¢ $13 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 66¢ $29 25d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $21 25d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $21 26d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 29¢ $20 26d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 30¢ $21 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.30 · official $31.30 (match) · 100 history records