Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T16:37:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9E 0x9e59…6019 crypto 52 markets active 0h ago coverage 13d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$72 (-11%) realized −$72 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate39%20W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day9.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 13d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 85% −$106
other 13% +$3
world 2% −$10
sports 1% +$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-29.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -3.6% -12.8% 54% 54% -14.6%
≤30d 51 -22.5% -29.8% 39% 37% -23.1%
≤90d 51 -22.5% -29.8% 39% 37% -23.1%
all 51 -22.5% -29.8% 39% 37% -23.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.8% 37% -23.1%
10% -36.6% 22% -30.5%
15% -42.7% 14% -37.2%
20% -48.3% 8% -43.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -38% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$7 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$72
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses20 / 31
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)51 / 52
History coverage13d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day9.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 28 $21 −$2 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 28 $10 +$2 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 28 $21 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 28 $10 +$3 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 28 $10 +$3 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 28 $10 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 28 $25 −$18 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 28 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 28 $26 +$6 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 28 $26 +$12 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 28 $31 +$4 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 28 $26 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 28 $31 +$5 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 28 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 28 $25 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 28 $26 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 28 $26 −$25 -96%
Will George Russell finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Jun 28 $25 +$7 +28%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? Jun 28 $20 +$31 +151%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 28 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 28 $4 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 28 $2 +$2 +76%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
UFC Fight Night: Gaston Bolaños vs. Michael Aswell (Featherweight, Pre Jun 17 $3 $0 -9%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 17 $3 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 17 $12 −$6 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 17 $6 +$2 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$3 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 17 $12 −$2 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -95%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$16 +307%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$5 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 15 $15 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $25 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 15 $16 −$5 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $16 −$5 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +7%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET SELL Down 75¢ $12 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $10 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET SELL Up 39¢ $7 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $10 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET SELL Up 68¢ $13 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $10 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 74¢ $12 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $10 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Down 39¢ $7 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $13 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $10 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $14 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $10 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET SELL Down 22¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET SELL Down 74¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET SELL Up 82¢ $38 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET SELL Up 79¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET SELL Up 75¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET SELL Up 73¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $26 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.91 · official $2.91 (match) · 131 history records