Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T12:37:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
9E 0x9e59…ff78 world 151 markets active 2h ago coverage 80d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,325 (+7%) realized +$2,357 · open −$32
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate64%87W / 50L
Whale WR73%big bets
Drawdown31%max
Avg bet$232per market
Trades / day8.3pace
Fees−$89est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$3,785now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$899
7 days+$749
14 days+$2,215
30 days+$1,950
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 34% −$612
sports 18% +$1,955
tech 17% +$1,488
other 14% −$558
finance 8% −$219
crypto 6% +$189
weather 2% −$31
economics 0% −$48
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -7.4% -16.3% 48% 39% +0.6%
≤30d 58 -3.9% -13.1% 50% 43% +0.4%
≤90d 137 -1.1% -10.5% 64% 45% -2.7%
all 137 -1.1% -10.5% 64% 45% -2.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 45% -2.7%
10% -19.1% 27% -12.0%
15% -26.9% 22% -20.5%
20% -34.1% 15% -28.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 73% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$83 vs −$103 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.43 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

80d coverage
Net worth$3,785
Realized+$2,357
Unrealized−$32
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses87 / 50
Whale WR (big bets)73%
Est. fees paid−$89
Open positions14
Markets (closed)137 / 151
History coverage80d
Avg bet$232
Trades / day8.3
Drawdown31%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 137 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 87¢ 93¢ $1,305 $1,394 +$88 (+7%)
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by June 30? No 86¢ 95¢ $345 $380 +$35 (+10%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? No 78¢ 91¢ $312 $363 +$51 (+16%)
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 44¢ 76¢ $176 $306 +$130 (+74%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $311 $277 −$34 (-11%)
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? No 83¢ 97¢ $208 $244 +$36 (+17%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? No 59¢ 90¢ $119 $180 +$61 (+51%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $210 $172 −$37 (-18%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 7¢ $214 $133 −$81 (-38%)
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 42¢ 24¢ $229 $127 −$102 (-44%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? Yes 28¢ 7¢ $277 $68 −$209 (-75%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $56 $63 +$7 (+12%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 20¢ $28 $40 +$11 (+40%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 13¢ $27 $39 +$12 (+42%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $117 −$42 -36%
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) Jun 22 $350 −$347 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $315 −$284 -90%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $311 −$305 -98%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $279 +$261 +93%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $462 −$167 -36%
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Jun 21 $270 +$190 +70%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $208 −$204 -98%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $325 +$155 +48%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $300 +$280 +93%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 20 $203 +$197 +97%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 19 $179 −$127 -71%
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $345 +$165 +48%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 18 $128 −$54 -42%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $348 +$152 +44%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? Jun 17 $65 −$25 -39%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $78 −$76 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $338 +$27 +8%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? Jun 16 $549 −$199 -36%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $400 +$26 +6%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? Jun 16 $920 +$1,072 +116%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Jun 15 $240 −$82 -34%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $259 +$138 +53%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $216 +$180 +83%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $141 +$159 +113%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 14 $375 +$25 +7%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 13 $336 −$336 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $477 +$376 +79%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $660 +$340 +52%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $338 +$62 +18%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? Jun 12 $427 +$73 +17%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $660 −$200 -30%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap Jun 11 $364 −$51 -14%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $683 +$711 +104%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $239 +$256 +107%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 09 $100 −$100 -100%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 09 $49 −$28 -56%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 08 $374 +$109 +29%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $430 −$142 -33%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 08 $312 −$88 -28%
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30? Jun 04 $170 −$29 -17%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $242 +$71 +29%
Roland Garros WTA: Anna Kalinskaya vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 03 $99 −$97 -99%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 03 $160 −$56 -35%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $174 −$99 -57%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 1? Jun 01 $92 −$91 -100%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 01 $845 +$141 +17%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $1,314 +$153 +12%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $423 +$20 +5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 30 $685 −$190 -28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? SELL No 97¢ $243 1h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 38¢ $38 11h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 38¢ $37 11h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $117 11h
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) BUY New Zealand 68¢ $350 11h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 7¢ $30 12h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 7¢ $0 12h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 71¢ $315 14h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 43¢ $311 17h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 51¢ $279 21h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 34¢ $170 32h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 66¢ $274 32h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $292 34h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $62 34h
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) BUY Curaçao 58¢ $270 36h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? BUY Yes 13¢ $13 39h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? BUY Yes 13¢ $52 40h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 34¢ $208 40h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 41h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? BUY Yes 13¢ $9 41h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 46h
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 44¢ $45 2d
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 44¢ $134 2d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 67¢ $325 2d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 51¢ $300 2d
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Scotland 50¢ $203 2d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 23¢ $41 2d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 23¢ $3 2d
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by June 30? BUY No 90¢ $90 3d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 70¢ $9 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,785.16 · official $3,785.16 (match) · 792 history records