Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T03:26:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9E 0x9e5b…fc7f crypto 96 markets active 0h ago coverage 238d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$210 (-8%) realized −$210 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate61%59W / 37L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 36% −$100
sports 30% +$32
weather 25% −$127
other 9% −$19
finance 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-30.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -35.9% -42.0% 36% 9% -10.4%
≤30d 11 -35.9% -42.0% 36% 9% -10.4%
≤90d 11 -35.9% -42.0% 36% 9% -10.4%
all 96 -23.7% -30.9% 61% 22% -16.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.9% 22% -16.5%
10% -37.5% 7% -24.5%
15% -43.6% 3% -31.8%
20% -49.1% 2% -38.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
64% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -42% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$10 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

238d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$210
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses59 / 37
Open positions0
Markets (closed)96 / 96
History coverage238d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 96 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 27 $62 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 27 $11 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 27 $1 +$3 +291%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $55 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 63-64°F on November Nov 11 $140 −$140 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 56-57°F on November Nov 11 $135 +$5 +4%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 61-62°F on November Nov 09 $127 +$7 +6%
Pacers vs. Nuggets Nov 09 $126 +$1 +1%
Bulls vs. Cavaliers Nov 09 $125 +$1 +1%
Pelicans vs. Spurs Nov 09 $119 +$6 +5%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 61-62°F on November Nov 09 $110 +$9 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Nov 08 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Melbourne City FC win on 2025-11-08? Nov 08 $17 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 59-60°F on November Nov 08 $41 −$23 -56%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 59-60°F on No Nov 08 $40 +$1 +4%
Thunder vs. Kings Nov 08 $11 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 61-62°F on No Nov 08 $12 +$4 +33%
76ers vs. Bulls Nov 08 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Nov 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Nov 08 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Nov 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 2, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Nov 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Nov 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 2AM ET Nov 08 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Nov 08 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 2, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Nov 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 2, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Nov 08 $10 −$10 -100%
XRP Up or Down - November 2, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Nov 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 3, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Nov 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 2, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Nov 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 3, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Nov 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 3, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Nov 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Georgetown Hoyas vs. Maryland Terrapins Nov 08 $56 +$4 +6%
Hornets vs. Heat Nov 08 $73 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 7, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Nov 08 $72 +$1 +1%
Cavaliers vs. Wizards Nov 08 $49 +$6 +12%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 55-56°F on November Nov 08 $14 +$3 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 7, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Nov 07 $9 +$1 +6%
XRP Up or Down - November 7, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Nov 07 $25 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 57-58°F on No Nov 07 $42 +$6 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 7, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Nov 07 $29 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 63-64°F on November Nov 07 $20 +$1 +5%
Will Central Coast Mariners FC win on 2025-11-07? Nov 07 $28 +$4 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $61 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET SELL Down 18¢ $3 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $1 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $11 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET SELL Down 31¢ $4 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $1 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 100¢ $55 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 99¢ $55 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be between 63-64°F on November BUY No 96¢ $140 227d
Will the highest temperature in London be between 56-57°F on November SELL No 100¢ $140 227d
Will the highest temperature in London be between 56-57°F on November BUY No 96¢ $135 228d
Will the highest temperature in London be between 61-62°F on November SELL No 100¢ $135 229d
Will the highest temperature in London be between 61-62°F on November BUY No 94¢ $127 229d
Pacers vs. Nuggets SELL Nuggets 100¢ $127 229d
Pacers vs. Nuggets BUY Nuggets 99¢ $126 229d
Bulls vs. Cavaliers SELL Cavaliers 100¢ $126 229d
Bulls vs. Cavaliers BUY Cavaliers 99¢ $125 229d
Pelicans vs. Spurs SELL Spurs 100¢ $125 229d
Pelicans vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 95¢ $119 230d
Will the highest temperature in London be between 61-62°F on November SELL No 100¢ $119 230d
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $19 230d
Will Melbourne City FC win on 2025-11-08? SELL Yes 100¢ $18 230d
Will the highest temperature in London be between 59-60°F on November SELL Yes 34¢ $1 230d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 235 history records