Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T05:59:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9E 0x9e5b…7796 world 58 markets active 2h ago coverage 130d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$2,056 (+4%) realized +$2,058 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate30%17W / 39L
Whale WR29%big bets
Drawdown99%max
Avg bet$981per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$30est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$189now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$328
7 days+$1,121
14 days+$133
30 days+$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 67% +$3,740
other 19% +$2,742
culture 8% −$2,935
sports 2% −$1,238
crypto 2% +$775
tech 2% −$1,093
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -0.8% -10.3% 40% 40% +10.4%
≤30d 21 +9.9% -0.6% 38% 38% -9.4%
≤90d 39 -23.5% -30.8% 26% 26% -55.7%
all 56 -0.5% -10.0% 30% 30% -6.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 30% -6.3%
10% -18.6% 30% -15.2%
15% -26.5% 30% -23.4%
20% -33.7% 29% -30.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -51% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 29% (≥$1,000) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +14% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
6.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,773 vs −$722 · ×2.46 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

130d coverage
Net worth$189
Realized+$2,058
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses17 / 39
Whale WR (big bets)29%
Est. fees paid−$30
Open positions1
Markets (closed)56 / 58
History coverage130d
Avg bet$981
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown99%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 56 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Yes 42¢ 42¢ $191 $189 −$2 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $246 +$148 +60%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $227 −$221 -98%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $154 −$150 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $624 +$836 +134%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $292 −$286 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $300 +$784 +262%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $347 −$339 -98%
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 21 $155 −$151 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $201 −$200 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1,103 +$775 +70%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $225 +$655 +291%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $150 −$146 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $298 −$292 -98%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $515 −$505 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $303 +$213 +70%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $930 −$912 -98%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $984 −$957 -97%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $989 +$922 +93%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $180 +$794 +442%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $857 −$836 -98%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 27 $810 −$120 -15%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 21 $831 −$831 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? May 20 $637 −$494 -78%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 28 $673 −$404 -60%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 24th? Apr 24 $104 −$104 -100%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? Apr 21 $1,193 −$1,193 -100%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? Apr 21 $506 −$506 -100%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st? Apr 21 $3,353 −$2,225 -66%
Netanyahu out by April 30? Apr 21 $992 −$479 -48%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 19 $805 −$35 -4%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Apr 11 $2,115 −$2,064 -98%
Israel military action against Yemen by April 15, 2026? Apr 07 $857 −$685 -80%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 05 $990 +$803 +81%
GPT-5.3 released by February 28, 2026? Apr 04 $1,093 −$1,093 -100%
Houthi strike on Israel by March 6, 2026? Apr 04 $680 −$680 -100%
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Apr 04 $1,529 −$1,529 -100%
Houthi strike on Israel by March 15, 2026? Apr 04 $4,516 −$4,516 -100%
Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Apr 04 $2,901 −$1,406 -48%
BitBoy convicted? Apr 01 $540 +$561 +104%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Mar 24 $1,837 −$1,459 -79%
US forces enter Iran by March 14? Mar 13 $812 −$587 -72%
Houthi strike on Israel by March 31, 2026? Mar 10 $686 −$168 -24%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? Mar 09 $999 +$642 +64%
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31? Mar 06 $594 −$390 -66%
Will another country strike Iran by March 31? Mar 06 $902 −$150 -17%
Will another country strike Iran by March 7? Mar 05 $1,049 −$595 -57%
Will Iran strike Cyprus in March? Mar 05 $600 −$330 -55%
Iran/Hezbollah strike on Cyprus by March 7? Mar 05 $600 −$485 -81%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? Mar 05 $4,386 +$1,804 +41%
Hezbollah strike on Israel by March 7? Mar 02 $500 +$500 +100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 42¢ $194 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 94¢ $395 2h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 58¢ $246 2h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 14¢ $227 6h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY 53¢ $147 24h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $154 27h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 42¢ $624 30h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $292 40h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,083 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 27¢ $300 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 13¢ $347 2d
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $155 3d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 84¢ $201 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $1,103 3d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 25¢ $225 4d
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $150 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $298 5d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $209 6d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $306 6d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $303 6d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 34¢ $134 7d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 34¢ $795 7d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 6¢ $984 8d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 51¢ $989 8d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $974 9d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 18¢ $175 10d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 10d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 16¢ $857 10d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 22¢ $690 27d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $564 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $188.80 · official $188.80 (match) · 445 history records