Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:58:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9E 0x9e5d…395f other 97 markets active 6d ago coverage 510d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate26%25W / 72L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 28% −$1
other 26% −$1
world 12% −$1
tech 9% −$1
weather 8% $0
sports 5% −$1
finance 4% $0
economics 3% −$1
culture 3% −$1
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-18.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +6.0% -4.1% 33% 33% -8.9%
≤30d 3 +6.0% -4.1% 33% 33% -8.9%
≤90d 27 +1.0% -8.7% 30% 4% -9.4%
all 97 -10.1% -18.7% 26% 1% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.7% 1% -10.9%
10% -26.5% 0% -19.4%
15% -33.6% 0% -27.2%
20% -40.1% 0% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.8 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

510d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses25 / 72
Open positions0
Markets (closed)97 / 97
History coverage510d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 97 Trades
no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $1 $0 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 26°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 -0%
Will SpaceX IPO on June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $11 $0 -0%
Will "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 80m? May 08 $1 $0 +0%
Will Germany strike Iran by April 30? May 08 $2 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 19°C on April 27? May 08 $11 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 08 $6 $0 -0%
KRG declares independence from Iraq by April 30? May 08 $1 $0 +1%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026? May 08 $7 $0 -0%
Will SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) hit (LOW) $590 in April? May 08 $3 $0 -0%
Trump out as President by April 30? May 08 $13 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by April 26, 2026? May 08 $4 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast hit 490 million subscribers by April 30? May 08 $9 $0 -0%
Will the Bank of Brazil increase the Selic rate after April 2026 meeti May 08 $10 $0 -0%
Will Trump cut off trade with Spain? Apr 07 $1 $0 +1%
Crude Oil all time high by March 31? Apr 07 $1 $0 +2%
US announces military support of Kurds in Iran by March 31? Apr 07 $1 $0 +2%
Will any European country expel an Israeli ambassador by March 31? Apr 07 $1 $0 +2%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 07 $11 $0 -0%
Will SoFi Technologies (SOFI) be added to the S&P 500 by March 31, 202 Apr 07 $4 $0 -0%
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? Apr 07 $1 $0 +2%
Will 40-44 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 17-23? Apr 07 $12 $0 -0%
Will BNB dip to $300 in March? Apr 07 $6 $0 -0%
Trump out as President by March 31? Apr 07 $3 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 18°C or higher on March 26? Mar 30 $8 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 March 23-29? Mar 30 $3 $0 -0%
Will New Slovenia – Christian Democrats (NSi) win the most seats in th Mar 25 $7 $0 -0%
Will 'Cloud 9' - Megan Moroney debut week album sales be at least 45k? Mar 06 $1 $0 +0%
Will there be 18–20 inches of snow in NYC this weekend? Mar 06 $1 $0 +1%
Will "Nuremberg" win Best Film at the 2026 BAFTA Awards? Mar 06 $1 $0 +0%
Will Snowflake (SNOW) beat quarterly earnings? Mar 06 $1 $0 +6%
Will Netflix reach $175 in February? Mar 06 $4 $0 -0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $190 by end of February? Mar 06 $5 $0 -0%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 22, 2026? Mar 06 $5 $0 -0%
March Fed Derivative: "25bps cut" flips "Pause" by Feb 28? Mar 06 $10 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $210 in January? Feb 14 $1 $0 +0%
US strikes Iran by January 29, 2026? Feb 14 $1 $0 +1%
Will UpScrolled be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 30 Feb 14 $1 $0 +1%
Will the total number of TSA passengers for January 28 be greater than Feb 14 $1 $0 +0%
Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be between 400m Feb 14 $6 $0 -0%
Will Kanye release BULLY by January 30? Feb 14 $1 $0 +1%
Will Trump’s Greenland Tariffs go into effect for Sweden by Feburary 1 Feb 14 $5 $0 -0%
Will there be 17 or more inches of snow in D.C. in January? Feb 14 $3 $0 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $35 by end of January? Feb 14 $6 $0 -0%
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by June 30? Feb 14 $1 $0 +0%
Will Mackenzie Blackwood win the 2025–2026 NHL Vezina Trophy? Jan 29 $4 $0 -0%
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Jan 29 $1 $0 -50%
Will Emissary Zero win VR Game of the Year at the 2025 Steam Awards? Jan 28 $1 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump say "nuclear" 3+ times during Israel President event Jan 28 $1 $0 +0%
No change in Bank of Japan's interest rates after January 2026 meeting Jan 28 $1 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 26°C or below on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $9 5d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 26°C or below on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $10 5d
Will SpaceX IPO on June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 5d
Will SpaceX IPO on June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $11 5d
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $1 5d
Will "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 80m? BUY Yes 100¢ $1 52d
Will Germany strike Iran by April 30? SELL No 100¢ $1 52d
Will Germany strike Iran by April 30? BUY No 100¢ $2 52d
Will SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) hit (LOW) $590 in April? SELL No 100¢ $2 52d
Will SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) hit (LOW) $590 in April? BUY No 100¢ $3 52d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by April 26, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $3 52d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by April 26, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $4 52d
KRG declares independence from Iraq by April 30? BUY No 99¢ $1 52d
Will Microsoft have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026? SELL No 100¢ $5 52d
Will Microsoft have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 100¢ $6 52d
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $6 52d
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $7 52d
Will MrBeast hit 490 million subscribers by April 30? SELL No 100¢ $7 52d
Will MrBeast hit 490 million subscribers by April 30? BUY No 100¢ $9 52d
Will the Bank of Brazil increase the Selic rate after April 2026 meeti SELL No 100¢ $9 52d
Will the Bank of Brazil increase the Selic rate after April 2026 meeti BUY No 100¢ $10 52d
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 19°C on April 27? SELL No 100¢ $10 52d
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 19°C on April 27? BUY No 100¢ $11 52d
Trump out as President by April 30? SELL No 100¢ $11 52d
Trump out as President by April 30? BUY No 100¢ $13 52d
Will SoFi Technologies (SOFI) be added to the S&P 500 by March 31, 202 SELL No 100¢ $3 79d
Will SoFi Technologies (SOFI) be added to the S&P 500 by March 31, 202 BUY No 100¢ $4 79d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 March 23-29? SELL No 100¢ $1 84d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 March 23-29? BUY No 100¢ $3 84d
Crude Oil all time high by March 31? BUY No 98¢ $1 84d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 319 history records