Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T03:35:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9E 0x9e5d…f58e politics 21 markets active 2h ago coverage 109d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%1W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$88per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 57% −$1
other 29% −$1
crypto 5% $0
sports 5% −$1
world 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.4% -9.9% 0% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 4 -0.4% -9.9% 0% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 15 -0.2% -9.7% 7% 0% -9.7%
all 21 -0.2% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

109d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses1 / 20
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)21 / 21
History coverage109d
Avg bet$88
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 21 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $86 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $87 −$1 -1%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $87 $0 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $87 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $87 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 20 $87 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 18 $87 $0 -0%
Trump out as President by May 31? May 16 $87 $0 +0%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? May 14 $88 −$1 -1%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 12 $88 −$1 -1%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 04 $88 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $90 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $90 $0 +0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 04 $90 $0 +0%
Trump out as President by March 31? Mar 29 $90 $0 +0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Mar 23 $90 $0 +0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 18 $90 $0 +0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 16 $90 $0 +0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Mar 16 $90 $0 +0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 11 $90 $0 +0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 05 $90 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $86 1h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $86 23h
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $86 11d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $87 13d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $87 24d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $87 24d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $87 26d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $87 26d
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $87 30d
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $87 31d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $87 32d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $87 33d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $87 34d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $87 34d
Trump out as President by May 31? SELL No 100¢ $87 36d
Trump out as President by May 31? BUY No 100¢ $87 36d
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 99¢ $87 38d
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 99¢ $88 39d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 97¢ $88 40d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $88 41d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $88 48d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1 48d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $87 48d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $90 66d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $90 66d
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $90 69d
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $90 70d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $90 78d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $90 79d
Trump out as President by March 31? SELL No 100¢ $90 84d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 64 history records