Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T13:12:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
9E 0x9e5d…c928 other 18 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$3,113 (+49%) realized +$3,151 · open −$38
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +112% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +47% what you keep after slip
Net edge+47%after slip
Net WR100%break-even
Win rate100%1W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$350per market
Trades / day30.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$3,409now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 53% +$3,147
other 27% −$31
finance 14% −$37
politics 3% +$20
crypto 2% −$1
sports 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +100%
net ROI/market (all)+91.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +111.9% +91.8% 100% 100% +91.8%
≤30d 1 +111.9% +91.8% 100% 100% +91.8%
≤90d 1 +111.9% +91.8% 100% 100% +91.8%
all 1 +111.9% +91.8% 100% 100% +91.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.9 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +91.8% 100% +91.8%
10% +73.4% 100% +73.4%
15% ← realistic here +56.6% 100% +56.6%
20% +41.3% 100% +41.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +112% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +112% · $-wt +112% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3,134 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$3,409
Realized+$3,151
Unrealized−$38
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses1 / 0
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions17
Markets (closed)1 / 18
History coverage1d
Avg bet$350
Trades / day30.9
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 1 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the United States have an Ebola case in 2026? Yes 44¢ 44¢ $517 $526 +$9 (+2%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $500 $488 −$12 (-2%)
Will the Republic of the Congo have an Ebola case in 2026? Yes 42¢ 44¢ $400 $412 +$12 (+3%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $400 $375 −$25 (-6%)
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 14¢ 18¢ $200 $250 +$50 (+25%)
Will Netanyahu publicly insult Trump by June 30? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $180 $200 +$20 (+11%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $200 $193 −$7 (-4%)
Ebola case in the US by June 30? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $150 $146 −$4 (-3%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $150 $120 −$30 (-20%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $100 $108 +$8 (+8%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Will China have an Ebola case in 2026? Yes 53¢ 33¢ $150 $93 −$57 (-38%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $100 $89 −$11 (-11%)
Will India have an Ebola case in 2026? Yes 40¢ 54¢ $50 $67 +$17 (+34%)
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 19 $2,800 +$3,134 +112%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will China have an Ebola case in 2026? BUY Yes 37¢ $52 30m
Will Netanyahu publicly insult Trump by June 30? BUY Yes 7¢ $30 31m
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $50 1h
Will China have an Ebola case in 2026? BUY Yes 69¢ $102 1h
Will the Republic of the Congo have an Ebola case in 2026? BUY Yes 46¢ $103 1h
Will the Republic of the Congo have an Ebola case in 2026? BUY Yes 44¢ $51 2h
Will the Republic of the Congo have an Ebola case in 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $103 2h
Will the Republic of the Congo have an Ebola case in 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $103 2h
Will the United States have an Ebola case in 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $103 2h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $51 5h
Will the Republic of the Congo have an Ebola case in 2026? BUY Yes 33¢ $52 5h
Will India have an Ebola case in 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $51 5h
Will the United States have an Ebola case in 2026? BUY Yes 52¢ $20 6h
Will the United States have an Ebola case in 2026? BUY Yes 52¢ $51 6h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 BUY Yes 20¢ $500 15h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $300 15h
Ebola case in the US by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $105 15h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 92¢ $5,934 16h
Will the United States have an Ebola case in 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $51 16h
Will the United States have an Ebola case in 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $206 16h
Will the United States have an Ebola case in 2026? BUY Yes 41¢ $83 16h
Will the United States have an Ebola case in 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $10 16h
Will the United States have an Ebola case in 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $4 16h
Will the United States have an Ebola case in 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 16h
Ebola case in the US by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $52 16h
Will Netanyahu publicly insult Trump by June 30? BUY Yes 7¢ $50 16h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $103 16h
Will Netanyahu publicly insult Trump by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $50 17h
Will Netanyahu publicly insult Trump by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $50 17h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 7¢ $100 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,408.99 · official $3,414.56 (match) · 40 history records