Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T08:19:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9E 0x9e5d…f085 crypto 40 markets active 0h ago coverage 21d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$20 (+4%) realized +$28 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate46%18W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day8.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$22
7 days−$22
14 days−$22
30 days−$28
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$36
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-29.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -16.4% -24.4% 48% 37% -13.8%
≤30d 39 -22.5% -29.9% 46% 36% -14.8%
≤90d 39 -22.5% -29.9% 46% 36% -14.8%
all 39 -22.5% -29.9% 46% 36% -14.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.9% 36% -14.8%
10% -36.6% 23% -22.9%
15% -42.7% 13% -30.4%
20% -48.3% 10% -37.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -25% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$6 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized+$28
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses18 / 21
Open positions1
Markets (closed)39 / 40
History coverage21d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day8.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Up 75¢ 94¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+26%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Down 32¢ 6¢ $10 $2 −$8 (-83%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 29 $19 +$9 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 29 $14 −$10 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 29 $20 −$9 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 29 $16 −$5 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 29 $18 −$10 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 29 $13 +$12 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 29 $15 −$9 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 29 $19 +$5 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 29 $13 −$9 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 29 $21 +$4 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 29 $19 −$5 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 29 $21 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 29 $19 −$8 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 29 $21 +$17 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 29 $21 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 29 $19 −$8 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 28 $22 +$5 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 28 $38 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 28 $4 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 28 $20 −$7 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 28 $13 −$10 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 28 $19 +$5 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 28 $21 +$4 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 28 $21 +$23 +111%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 28 $24 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 28 $19 −$17 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 09 $6 −$1 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 09 $1 +$1 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 08 $4 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $2 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $3 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $11 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $3 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $2 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $3 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $11 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $3 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $11 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $26 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $3 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $2 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $3 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $11 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $6 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $2 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.54 · official $12.69 · 214 history records