Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T13:54:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
9E 0x9e5e…fd91 sports 148 markets active 9h ago coverage 263d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$8,564 (-1%) realized −$9,677 · open +$1,113
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate55%81W / 65L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8,157per market
Trades / day7.6pace
Fees−$5,164est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$8,447now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 263d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% +$1,228
other 11% −$15,447
world 0% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-4.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +26.7% +14.6% 55% 50% +34.1%
≤30d 51 -2.1% -11.5% 51% 47% +4.1%
≤90d 94 +8.7% -1.6% 57% 55% -11.3%
all 146 +5.1% -4.9% 55% 54% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.6 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.9% 54% -8.8%
10% ← realistic here -14.0% 47% -17.5%
15% -22.3% 41% -25.5%
20% -29.9% 40% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$9,600) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +7% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
13.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$5,835 vs −$7,625 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

263d coverage
Net worth$8,447
Realized−$9,677
Unrealized+$1,113
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses81 / 65
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$5,164
Open positions2
Markets (closed)146 / 148
History coverage263d
Avg bet$8,157
Trades / day7.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 146 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 26¢ 28¢ $5,979 $6,553 +$574 (+10%)
Will DR Congo be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? No 44¢ 62¢ $1,355 $1,894 +$539 (+40%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 61 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $4,130 +$15,870 +384%
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Jun 27 $2,472 +$1,028 +42%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $2,031 −$1,982 -98%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $3,141 +$7,445 +237%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 27 $1,950 −$1,950 -100%
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $3,365 +$8,135 +242%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 26 $1,125 −$1,125 -100%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $10,788 +$5,039 +47%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $1,244 −$1,212 -98%
Ecuador vs. Germany: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $1,648 +$3,061 +186%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $4,332 +$3,668 +85%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $2,250 +$2,750 +122%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $1,608 −$1,600 -100%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 23 $1,880 −$1,863 -99%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 23 $8,350 −$8,280 -99%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $2,254 −$2,222 -99%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $1,048 −$1,024 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Andre Fili vs. Vinicius Oliveira (Featherweight, Main Jun 21 $2,534 +$558 +22%
UFC Fight Night: Kevin Borjas vs. Andre Lima (Flyweight, Main Card) Jun 21 $7,713 +$4,525 +59%
UFC Fight Night: Otari Tanzilovi vs. Shane Collins (Featherweight, Pre Jun 20 $354 +$34 +10%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $2,071 −$2,050 -99%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $1,275 −$1,253 -98%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $1,540 −$1,540 -100%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1,440 −$1,440 -100%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $911 −$900 -99%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $700 −$700 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $2,167 +$2,745 +127%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $36,467 −$28,518 -78%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $17,613 +$4,748 +27%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $2,062 −$2,062 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $3,101 +$824 +27%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $916 −$900 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $11,482 +$3,518 +31%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $1,320 −$1,320 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $1,025 −$1,001 -98%
Will Qatar be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 13 $908 −$905 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $4,171 +$829 +20%
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main Jun 07 $677 −$664 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Brendan Allen vs. Edmen Shahbazyan (Middleweight, Mai Jun 07 $18,237 +$5,861 +32%
UFC Fight Night: Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna (Bantamweight, Main Jun 07 $27,300 +$2,700 +10%
UFC Fight Night: Farés Ziam vs. Tom Nolan (Lightweight, Prelims) Jun 07 $14,915 −$14,800 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Marcus McGhee vs. John Yannis (Bantamweight, Prelims) Jun 07 $30,951 +$7,773 +25%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $1 +$1 +117%
Will Slovenia win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $76 +$223 +291%
Spread: Slovenia (-1.5) Jun 04 $842 +$736 +87%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $8,949 +$3,051 +34%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 May 30 $4,252 +$3,748 +88%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 1.5 May 30 $1,102 −$1,100 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Song Yadong vs. Deiveson Figueiredo (Bantamweight, Ma May 30 $25,068 +$5,431 +22%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 0.5 May 30 $950 −$950 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 34¢ $1,054 9h
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) BUY Belgium 70¢ $2,472 9h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 15¢ $1 10h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 15¢ $36 10h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 15¢ $1,500 10h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 15¢ $1,538 10h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 16¢ $1 10h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 16¢ $1 10h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 18¢ $2,029 10h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 30¢ $2,224 13h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 30¢ $333 13h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 28¢ $554 13h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 28¢ $30 13h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 39¢ $8 13h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 39¢ $1,518 13h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 39¢ $12 13h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 39¢ $28 13h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 39¢ $385 13h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 44¢ $1,790 35h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 45¢ $329 35h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 45¢ $45 35h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 45¢ $751 35h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 21¢ $197 36h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 21¢ $0 36h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 21¢ $4 36h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 21¢ $399 36h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 21¢ $21 36h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 21¢ $359 36h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 21¢ $20 36h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 21¢ $576 36h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8,446.98 · official $8,449.28 (match) · 2110 history records