Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:34:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9E 0x9e5f…82fe crypto 41 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$43 (+3%) realized +$57 · open −$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate47%15W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day11.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$152now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 78% −$244
sports 8% +$77
other 6% −$23
politics 4% +$1
tech 2% −$27
finance 1% −$4
world 1% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-24.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -16.3% -24.3% 47% 44% -22.8%
≤30d 32 -16.3% -24.3% 47% 44% -22.8%
≤90d 32 -16.3% -24.3% 47% 44% -22.8%
all 32 -16.3% -24.3% 47% 44% -22.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.3% 44% -22.8%
10% -31.6% 44% -30.2%
15% -38.2% 34% -37.0%
20% -44.2% 31% -43.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -33% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$42 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$152
Realized+$57
Unrealized−$14
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses15 / 17
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions9
Markets (closed)32 / 41
History coverage5d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day11.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 15¢ 17¢ $30 $33 +$3 (+10%)
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026? Yes 21¢ 24¢ $23 $27 +$4 (+17%)
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-8%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $22 $18 −$4 (-18%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 8¢ $26 $18 −$8 (-31%)
US national Bitcoin reserve before 2027? Yes 28¢ 25¢ $15 $13 −$2 (-12%)
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-42%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 17 $62 +$38 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 17 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 17 $192 −$110 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 17 $110 −$105 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 17 $184 +$93 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 17 $175 −$175 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 17 $52 +$39 +76%
Spread: England (-4.5) Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 17 $94 +$135 +144%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 +$8 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 17 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $20 +$6 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 17 $31 +$20 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 17 $31 +$29 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 17 $72 −$72 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $21 +$23 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 17 $30 +$3 +10%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $20 +$5 +24%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $31 +$55 +180%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $21 +$32 +152%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $15 +$6 +40%
Uruguay to score first vs. Saudi Arabia? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 June 8-14? Jun 14 $24 −$23 -99%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 20 and 25 million views on day 1 Jun 14 $25 −$24 -98%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $24 +$6 +23%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $23 −$22 -96%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $26 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $36 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $69 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $82 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $91 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $63 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $52 2h
Spread: England (-4.5) BUY England 59¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $52 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $42 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $15 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $2 19h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $10 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $21 20h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $20 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $26 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $21 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $31 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $31 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $31 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $152.48 · official $152.48 (match) · 87 history records