Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T00:41:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9E 0x9e61…0191 sports 104 markets active 2h ago coverage 44d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$10 (-1%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate51%51W / 49L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days+$6
14 days+$9
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% −$9
crypto 6% −$12
other 2% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-24.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -5.4% -14.4% 53% 53% -5.5%
≤30d 80 -20.4% -28.0% 49% 45% -10.8%
≤90d 100 -16.7% -24.6% 51% 47% -11.9%
all 100 -16.7% -24.6% 51% 47% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.6% 47% -11.9%
10% -31.8% 40% -20.4%
15% -38.4% 31% -28.1%
20% -44.5% 25% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

44d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses51 / 49
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions3
Markets (closed)100 / 104
History coverage44d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 100 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Over 46¢ 46¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
World Cup Goals H2H: Salah vs. Mane Mane 52¢ 42¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-18%)
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Over 53¢ 42¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 38 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $93 +$11 +12%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $4 +$1 +20%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $1 +$2 +149%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $10 $0 +3%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $1 +$1 +73%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $1 +$1 +97%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $6 −$5 -82%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $1 +$1 +76%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1 $0 +38%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1 +$1 +134%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -99%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +93%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$2 +226%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $13 +$3 +22%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +60%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $1 +$1 +57%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $1 $0 +31%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $1 $0 +31%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $3 −$2 -65%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +114%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $1 $0 +42%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $1 $0 +22%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $1 +$1 +64%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +165%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +41%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 11 $1 +$1 +54%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $1 −$1 -90%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $1 +$1 +56%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $1 $0 +9%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $100 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Team Falcons 99¢ $102 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 88¢ $91 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Team Falcons 46¢ $1 2h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 38¢ $1 2h
World Cup Goals H2H: Salah vs. Mane BUY Mane 52¢ $1 2h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 24¢ $1 2h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Falcons 27¢ $2 3h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 11¢ $1 3h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Falcons 11¢ $1 3h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 8¢ $1 3h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Vitality 82¢ $1 3h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 67¢ $1 3h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 99¢ $3 4h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 39¢ $1 4h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Team Falcons 36¢ $1 4h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 99¢ $1 6h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 30¢ $1 6h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 71¢ $1 6h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL G2 43¢ $1 6h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 43¢ $1 6h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL G2 41¢ $3 6h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 25¢ $1 6h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 35¢ $1 6h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 66¢ $1 6h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 50¢ $1 6h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL G2 50¢ $1 6h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 32¢ $1 7h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 61¢ $4 7h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 38¢ $1 7h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 40¢ $1 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.61 · official $2.61 (match) · 252 history records