Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:20:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9E 0x9e63…7e29 sports 710 markets active 2h ago coverage 152d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 151d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$762 (+4%) realized +$639 · open +$123
Gross ROI / mkt -40% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -54% what you keep after slip
Net edge-54%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate25%221W / 673L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day21.4pace
Fees−$136est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$493now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 152d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 68% +$963
crypto 14% −$410
other 12% +$655
world 5% $0
politics 0% +$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-45.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 266 -81.1% -82.9% 4% 4% -40.3%
≤30d 313 -79.6% -81.6% 6% 6% -39.4%
≤90d 700 -43.7% -49.1% 21% 21% -25.1%
all 894 -40.2% -45.9% 25% 23% -25.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -45.9% 23% -25.3%
10% ← realistic here -51.0% 22% -32.5%
15% -55.8% 22% -39.0%
20% -60.1% 20% -45.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 42% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -40% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -64% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$18 · ×2.13 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

152d coverage
Net worth$493
Realized+$639
Unrealized+$123
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses221 / 673
Est. fees paid−$136
Open positions26
Markets (closed)894 / 710
History coverage152d ⚠
Avg bet$24
Trades / day21.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 26 History 894 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes 10¢ 34¢ $40 $137 +$97 (+243%)
Will GameStop acquire eBay? No 85¢ 88¢ $100 $103 +$3 (+3%)
Will LIV Golf announce shutdown in 2026? No 20¢ 34¢ $50 $87 +$37 (+74%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $50 $46 −$4 (-9%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $27 +$17 (+171%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $31 $26 −$5 (-15%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $25 $20 −$5 (-21%)
Will Tom Kim win the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes $1 $8 +$7 (+680%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $8 −$2 (-22%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $5 −$5 (-46%)
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Sahith Theegala win the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes $2 $4 +$2 (+85%)
Will Akshay Bhatia win the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes $3 $3 +$0 (+14%)
Will Maverick McNealy win the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes $3 $2 −$1 (-18%)
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-5%)
Will Aaron Rai win the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes $3 $1 −$2 (-62%)
Will Ryo Hisatsune win the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Will JT Poston win the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes $2 $1 −$1 (-67%)
Will Max McGreevy win the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-36%)
Will Joaquin Niemann win the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes $3 $1 −$2 (-83%)
Will Sung-Jae Im win the 2026 Masters tournament? Yes $5 $0 −$4 (-90%)
Will Max Greyserman win the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-64%)
Will Ryan Fox win the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes $3 $0 −$3 (-92%)
Will Dustin Johnson win the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-79%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 474 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Padres vs. Cubs Jun 20 $15 −$15 -100%
Penguins vs. Red Wings Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Oilers vs. Capitals Jun 20 $21 −$21 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Kings Jun 20 $12 −$12 -100%
Marlins vs. Nationals Jun 20 $15 −$15 -100%
Astros vs. Rangers Jun 20 $12 −$12 -100%
Yankees vs. Orioles Jun 20 $9 −$9 -100%
Maple Leafs vs. Capitals Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Yankees vs. Twins Jun 20 $9 −$9 -100%
Mariners vs. Rays Jun 20 $19 −$19 -100%
Islanders vs. Hurricanes Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Panthers vs. Lightning Jun 20 $18 −$18 -100%
Orioles vs. Padres Jun 20 $19 −$19 -100%
Bruins vs. Islanders Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Cubs vs. Brewers Jun 20 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Braves vs. Tigers Jun 20 $15 −$15 -100%
Stars vs. Kings Jun 20 $9 −$9 -100%
Kraken vs. Hurricanes Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Mets vs. Reds Jun 20 $11 −$11 -100%
Blue Jays vs. Royals Jun 20 $9 −$9 -100%
Wild vs. Flyers Jun 20 $12 −$12 -100%
Canadiens vs. Maple Leafs Jun 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Senators vs. Utah Jun 20 $23 −$23 -100%
Canucks vs. Blue Jackets Jun 20 $15 −$15 -100%
Marlins vs. Rockies Jun 20 $9 −$9 -100%
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Arthur Rinderknech vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 20 $35 −$35 -100%
Lightning vs. Stars Jun 20 $30 −$30 -100%
Kings vs. Wild Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Rays vs. Cubs Jun 20 $9 −$9 -100%
Angels vs. Mariners Jun 20 $9 −$9 -100%
Guardians vs. Red Sox Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Tigers vs. Marlins Jun 20 $9 −$9 -100%
Vikings vs. Browns Jun 20 $12 −$12 -100%
Ducks vs. Sabres Jun 20 $15 −$15 -100%
Twins vs. Rangers Jun 20 $9 −$9 -100%
Astros vs. Athletics Jun 20 $15 −$15 -100%
Capitals vs. Canadiens Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Twins vs. Angels Jun 20 $15 −$15 -100%
ATP World Tour Finals, Jimmy Connors Group: Carlos Alcaraz vs Lorenzo Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Flames vs. Canadiens Jun 20 $44 −$44 -100%
Blues vs. Flyers Jun 20 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Russell Henley win the 2025 FedEx Cup? Jun 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Senators vs. Flyers Jun 20 $12 −$12 -100%
Islanders vs. Golden Knights Jun 20 $11 −$11 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Utah Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Mariners vs. Astros Jun 20 $39 −$39 -100%
49ers vs. Rams Jun 20 $29 −$29 -100%
Cardinals vs. Mariners Jun 20 $17 −$17 -100%
Islanders vs. Predators Jun 20 $21 −$21 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 1h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 1h
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 34¢ $36 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes $1 6h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $5 7h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 8h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 8h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 31h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $21 31h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 40h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes $2 40h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 40h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 40h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 40h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $3 40h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 2d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $2 2d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $3 3d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 3d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 3d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 3d
Will Maverick McNealy win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes $3 3d
Will Patrick Reed win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes $10 3d
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes $5 3d
Will Min Woo Lee win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes $3 3d
Will Aaron Rai win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes $3 3d
Will Joaquin Niemann win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes $3 3d
Will Kristoffer Reitan win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes $3 3d
Will Jake Knapp win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes $3 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $493.30 · official $493.31 (match) · 3500 history records