Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T14:37:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
9E 0x9e63…c52a world 37 markets active 0h ago coverage 468d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +42% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +28% what you keep after slip
Net edge+28%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate49%18W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 47% −$1
other 42% +$2
politics 6% $0
tech 2% $0
economics 2% $0
sports 2% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)+28.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +3.1% -6.7% 75% 0% -7.3%
≤30d 14 +0.4% -9.1% 50% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 14 +0.4% -9.1% 50% 0% -9.4%
all 37 +41.6% +28.1% 49% 5% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +28.1% 5% -9.3%
10% +15.8% 5% -17.9%
15% +4.6% 3% -25.9%
20% -5.6% 3% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +42% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +84% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.59 per $1 lost it wins $1.59
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

468d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses18 / 19
Open positions0
Markets (closed)37 / 37
History coverage468d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 37 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 19 $73 +$2 +2%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $5 $0 +3%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $11 +$1 +7%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 03 $41 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $40 −$2 -5%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 03 $38 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 02 $104 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 31 $36 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 30 $13 $0 -3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 29 $12 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 28 $36 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 28 $40 $0 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 27 $36 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? Dec 13 $1 $0 +1%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 02 $0 $0 +1600%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 29 $13 −$1 -5%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July? Jun 09 $14 $0 +0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 08 $14 $0 -1%
Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 05 $14 +$1 +5%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50k in May? Jun 02 $0 $0 -100%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? Apr 12 $15 $0 -0%
Will UCR win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Apr 10 $15 $0 -0%
Will federal spending decrease by more than $2t between Q4 2024 and Q2 Apr 08 $15 $0 +0%
Will Malta win Eurovision 2025? Apr 08 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Apr 06 $15 $0 -0%
Will the AFD be part of the next German government? Apr 03 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the Western Conference? Apr 01 $15 $0 -0%
Will xAI have the top AI model on March 31? Mar 30 $15 $0 +1%
US lifts Russia sanctions before April? Mar 28 $15 $0 +1%
March Madness: Will 0 teams seeded #1 make the Final 4? Mar 27 $13 $0 -0%
Will CDU/CSU and SPD form the next German Government? Mar 24 $1 $0 +24%
Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany? Mar 24 $13 $0 -1%
Will Elon tweet 525-549 times March 14-21? Mar 18 $13 +$1 +4%
No change in Fed interest rates after March 2025 meeting? Mar 17 $14 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 650-674 times March 7-14? Mar 15 $14 $0 +3%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 09 $14 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $35 14m
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $34 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 6h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 8h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 8h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 14h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 16h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 48¢ $5 24h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 48¢ $35 27h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $39 28h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $12 32h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $11 36h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 31¢ $10 41h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 31¢ $10 43h
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 15d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 16d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 16d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 23¢ $9 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 24¢ $9 16d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $38 16d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $38 16d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $30 16d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $30 16d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $38 17d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $38 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 22¢ $19 19d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 24¢ $20 19d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $36 19d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $36 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 103 history records