Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T18:15:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9E 0x9e66…a1c0 sports 62 markets active 0h ago coverage 5d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (57 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$22 (-2%) realized −$44 · open +$22
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate54%22W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day57.4pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$679now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 51% +$73
sports 32% −$24
finance 9% $0
other 7% −$6
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (57 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-0.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 +9.7% -0.7% 54% 39% -5.4%
≤30d 41 +9.7% -0.7% 54% 39% -5.4%
≤90d 41 +9.7% -0.7% 54% 39% -5.4%
all 41 +9.7% -0.7% 54% 39% -5.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover57.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -0.7% 39% -5.4%
10% ← realistic here -10.2% 32% -14.5%
15% -18.9% 20% -22.7%
20% -26.8% 17% -30.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 58% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +24% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.29 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$679
Realized−$44
Unrealized+$22
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses22 / 19
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions21
Markets (closed)41 / 62
History coverage5d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day57.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 21 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 88¢ 88¢ $200 $199 −$1 (-1%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? No 95¢ 94¢ $89 $89 −$0 (-0%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Yes 29¢ 23¢ $77 $61 −$16 (-21%)
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30? Yes 30¢ 54¢ $33 $60 +$27 (+83%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? No 83¢ 85¢ $36 $37 +$1 (+3%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Yes 94¢ 94¢ $35 $35 +$0 (+0%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 25¢ 25¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Yes 69¢ 80¢ $20 $23 +$3 (+15%)
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Yes 14¢ 32¢ $9 $20 +$12 (+130%)
Will Israel annex any territory by December 31? No 87¢ 88¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? No 86¢ 86¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $20 $16 −$4 (-19%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+0%)
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? No 92¢ 93¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? Yes 27¢ 27¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Iran leadership change by December 31? No 84¢ 84¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? No 93¢ 92¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? No 79¢ 74¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? No 68¢ 67¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 98¢ 99¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? No 5¢ 2¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-53%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Jun 16 $26 +$47 +180%
Figueira Da Foz: Darja Vidmanova vs Angelina Voloshchuk Jun 16 $8 −$3 -36%
HSBC Championships: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 16 $11 −$6 -51%
Parma: Pedro Martinez vs Daniel Rincon Jun 16 $13 $0 +3%
Royan: Philip Henning vs Gerard Campana Lee Jun 16 $5 +$8 +158%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Vit Kopriva Jun 16 $4 +$1 +28%
Dublin: Rio Noguchi vs Clement Tabur Jun 16 $3 +$2 +50%
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Martin Damm Jun 16 $2 +$3 +134%
Nottingham Open: Caty McNally vs Antonia Ruzic Jun 16 $26 −$15 -59%
Royan: Maxime Janvier vs Emilien Demanet Jun 16 $9 +$2 +26%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 16 $8 −$3 -39%
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo Jun 16 $6 −$6 -98%
Nottingham Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 16 $10 +$1 +7%
Poznan: Norbert Gombos vs Olle Wallin Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Parma: Jesper de Jong vs Laslo Djere Jun 16 $12 −$12 -99%
Dublin: Oliver Crawford vs Daniil Glinka Jun 16 $5 +$1 +30%
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Nottingham 2: Dane Sweeny vs Jacob Fearnley Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $18 −$2 -9%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $20 −$1 -7%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $20 +$1 +3%
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron Jun 16 $4 +$6 +155%
Royan: Raphael Perot vs Robin Bertrand Jun 16 $5 $0 -5%
Brescia: Mia Ristic vs Deborah Chiesa Jun 16 $5 $0 +2%
Nottingham Open: McCartney Kessler vs Katie Volynets Jun 16 $3 +$2 +73%
Figueira Da Foz: Matilde Jorge vs Jil Teichmann Jun 16 $3 +$2 +83%
Parma: Marco Cecchinato vs Carlo Alberto Caniato Jun 16 $5 −$1 -18%
Poznan: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Max Hans Rehberg Jun 16 $6 −$1 -16%
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 16 $2 +$3 +158%
Figueira Da Foz: Yeon-Woo Ku vs Lucrezia Stefanini Jun 16 $9 +$1 +12%
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 16 $8 +$2 +24%
Halle Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Alexander Bublik Jun 16 $18 +$5 +30%
Halle Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Raphael Collignon Jun 16 $11 −$1 -8%
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Xinyu Wang Jun 16 $21 −$1 -5%
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys Jun 16 $65 −$15 -24%
Brescia: Darya Astakhova vs Noemi Basiletti Jun 16 $5 $0 -8%
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Zsombor Piros Jun 16 $26 +$4 +14%
Brescia: Julia Grabher vs Chloe Paquet Jun 16 $12 $0 -1%
Parma: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Federico Bondioli Jun 16 $32 +$4 +12%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL Yes 36¢ $35 0m
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? BUY Yes 95¢ $5 3m
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? BUY Yes 95¢ $5 9m
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY No 88¢ $5 10m
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY No 88¢ $5 23m
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? BUY No 68¢ $4 47m
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY No 88¢ $5 53m
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY No 88¢ $5 53m
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY No 88¢ $5 54m
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY No 88¢ $5 55m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL Yes 52¢ $2 59m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL Yes 52¢ $5 59m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL Yes 52¢ $13 59m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL Yes 68¢ $74 59m
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY No 88¢ $5 1h
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? BUY Yes 95¢ $5 1h
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? BUY Yes 95¢ $5 1h
Iran leadership change by December 31? BUY No 84¢ $5 1h
Iran leadership change by December 31? BUY No 85¢ $5 1h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY No 88¢ $5 1h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY No 88¢ $2 1h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY No 88¢ $5 1h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY No 88¢ $5 1h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY No 88¢ $5 1h
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? BUY Yes 95¢ $5 1h
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? BUY Yes 95¢ $5 1h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY No 88¢ $5 2h
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo BUY Gabriel Diallo 28¢ $5 3h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Vit Kopriva BUY Alexander Zverev 78¢ $4 3h
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo BUY Gabriel Diallo 28¢ $1 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $679.27 · official $683.76 (match) · 333 history records