Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T09:41:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9E 0x9e66…2cd4 sports 80 markets active 2h ago coverage 63d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$336 (+4%) realized +$336 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate31%25W / 55L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$116per market
Trades / day8.7pace
Fees−$73est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$84
7 days+$9
14 days+$18
30 days−$316
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 55% −$363
other 39% +$159
politics 3% +$3
crypto 2% +$1
world 0% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-26.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -18.5% -26.2% 36% 25% -8.6%
≤30d 62 -13.7% -21.9% 31% 21% -14.8%
≤90d 80 -18.9% -26.6% 31% 19% -11.3%
all 80 -18.9% -26.6% 31% 19% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.6% 19% -11.3%
10% -33.6% 19% -19.8%
15% -40.0% 19% -27.5%
20% -45.9% 16% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -24% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$54 vs −$28 · ×1.9 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

63d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$336
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses25 / 55
Est. fees paid−$73
Open positions0
Markets (closed)80 / 80
History coverage63d
Avg bet$116
Trades / day8.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 80 Trades
no open positions (32 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3AM ET Jun 24 $172 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2AM ET Jun 24 $23 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1AM ET Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $37 +$23 +62%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 24 $7 −$6 -98%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -98%
Targu Mures: Radu Albot vs Duje Ajdukovic Jun 23 $12 −$2 -15%
T20 Asia Pacific Champions Trophy: Thailand vs Singapore Jun 23 $5 +$3 +63%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $13 −$12 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $31 +$39 +123%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $185 +$85 +46%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $90 −$10 -11%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $3 −$3 -98%
Namibia T20 Tri-Series: Namibia vs Hong Kong, China Jun 22 $23 −$23 -99%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $2 +$8 +307%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $6 −$6 -98%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $6 −$6 -99%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $23 +$77 +331%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $11 −$11 -97%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $144 −$142 -99%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $18 +$12 +70%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 48 and 49 million views on day 4 Jun 17 $67 +$3 +4%
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 47 million views on day 4? Jun 17 $15 $0 +1%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka Jun 16 $15 −$4 -29%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $9 +$31 +325%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $19 +$21 +114%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $16 −$16 -98%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Thailand vs Nepal Jun 10 $40 −$39 -98%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 09 $2 −$2 -97%
T20 Blast: Somerset vs Warwickshire Jun 08 $98 +$152 +156%
T20 Asian Games, Qualifier: Hong Kong, China vs Malaysia Jun 07 $28 −$3 -10%
ICC Cricket World Cup League Two: Canada vs USA Jun 07 $228 −$8 -4%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 63.5 and 64 million views in wee Jun 06 $28 +$1 +5%
Will MrBeast's next video get 64 million or more views in week 1? Jun 06 $73 −$3 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12PM ET Jun 06 $5 $0 +4%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Malaysia vs Indonesia Jun 06 $84 −$82 -98%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Japan vs Myanmar Jun 06 $66 −$6 -8%
T20 Asian Games, Qualifier: Bahrain vs Singapore Jun 06 $107 −$7 -6%
T20 Scotland Tri-Series, Women: Scotland vs Netherlands Jun 03 $309 −$42 -14%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: China vs Oman Jun 03 $341 −$252 -74%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Malaysia vs Kuwait Jun 03 $128 −$28 -22%
T20 Scotland Tri-Series, Women: Scotland vs Bangladesh Jun 02 $12 −$12 -100%
T20 Asian Games, Qualifier: Oman vs Singapore Jun 02 $229 −$206 -90%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $78 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $7 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $2 4h
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 9h
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 9h
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 9h
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $4 9h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 9h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 55¢ $6 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 601 history records